US ALLIES HAVE VERY MANY UNANSWERED QUESTIONS

….NATO Headquarters in Brussels, Belgium

 

A peaceful, free and prosperous Europe is strategic to US interest.

 

With all the various issues that have arisen with the election of Donald Trump, there is one issue that is of the highest importance and Mr. Trump doesn’t seem very concerned. 

 

It is only with major effort that the leaders of Europe have managed to compose themselves after the US election.  But in reality, they are torn between pure shock and the necessity of preserving what can be preserved between the West and the Atlantic relationship.

 

Many of those in Europe have been listening to Trump over these past 2 years and if you recall, Trump has been saying both during and before his general campaign, that his election would be the end of the West as we know it.

 

For more than half a century, this story of phenomenal relationship success has been built on a commitment to freedom and democracy, free trade, solid alliances and reliable friendships.  But Trump has consistently attacked or questioned that arrangement.

 

No part of the success of the West has been more important than the success of Europe under the protection of and in a strong relationship with the United States.

 

A peaceful, free and prosperous Europe is a key strategic US interest.  Granted, twice in the past century, America was dragged into wars as Europe plunged into conflict.  But because of a stable United States, those differences within the various European countries, they have been able with the help of the US, to maintain a stable European Union.

 

This stability would probably not be possible without that strong relationship with the United States.  A fracturing Europe would be less stable and, in the long perspective, would also be a more dangerous Europe.

 

When Trump received the jubilant British anti-Europe campaigner, Nigel Farage before seeing other foreign politicians, he was sending the worst possible signal to Europe. By design or by default, he has transmitted a signal of support to those dark forces in various European countries trying to undo what generations of US and European statesmen have worked to achieve.

 

Trump is already talking of backing out of the Paris global climate agreement, he said for months that he was going to undermine the Iran deal, and he’s always questioned important free-trade agreements.  The signature achievements of the past few years are suddenly up in the air.  The fact that today there is deep apprehension around many of the capitals of Europe is hardly surprising.

 

The raw results of the campaign will eventually be turned into some level of US policy, and European Union leaders will want to see if this process will moderate or will all of his campaign promises become reality. His appointments are already being very closely watched,, some are already being questioned (Stephen Bannon?).

 

In April 2009, a newly elected President Obama came to a NATO summit and a special EU-US. summit in Prague.  It was a wonderful beginning for the new president.

 

There will now be a new start of a very different sort.  President-Elect Trump has also been invited to a EU-US summit and there is the G20 meeting in Germany and there will probably be another NATO summit.  But there is no clue how the new president and his administration will perform.

 

Security issues are bound to be a major issue.  But more than security is concern for Trump’s positive attitude toward Russia and Putin and his comments about what he expects from the European countries.  This is in regards to Trump’s comments on possibly cutting US spending on NATO.  No one has a clue what will come out of the new president’s mouth on this issue.

 

Defense spending is already being increased in key parts of Europe.  Most of the northern and eastern European countries have reached, or are aiming at spending 2% of their GDP for defense. But it is how these sums are actually spent that matters, and it is here that both NATO and the European Union must do better than they have in the past.

 

It is true that the United States accounts for 70% of the overall defense spending of the NATO countries, but that 70% number is seriously skewed because all US defense spending is on a global basis, and the US aim is to have 60% of its air and naval forces stationed in the Asia-Pacific region.

 

It is true that the US is the largest NATO spender, but since the other NATO countries have re-built their countries after their devastation in WWII, they have assumed a much larger portion of the NATO funding.

 

According to Russia’s leader Putin, there is already an agreement with the new US president-elect to start “active joint efforts” to normalize relations with Russia.  Europe has nothing against good relations with Russia, but will they be based on rolling back Russia’s current aggression against the Ukraine, and ceasing silent cyber-hacking operations?  Oh, and will they respect all the rules agreed upon between the other nations?

 

There is serious concern that due to some of the President-Elect’s comments about Putin, that Trump might waver on these issues.  To do that could be like falling dominos of destabilization in Europe.

Should the new US president start his relationship with Russia by being tolerant of Putin’s “smash-and-grab raids”.  The European allies could react against both the US and Russia. 

 

Trump’s comments towards dealing with Russia have been mostly about business deals, not about geopolitics.  Trump has been unconcerned with Putin’s desire to become the dominate country as was the former Soviet Union when he was a high level KGB agent.

 

Russia’s economic power is nothing when even compared to some of the individual states in the US.  But militarily they do still have a large nuclear stockpile and they have a large capable army and navy.  Fortunately, they only have one aircraft carrier left over from the former Soviet Navy.  But their 60+ submarines and their large air force still makes them the 2^nd most powerful military to the United States.  But of course, China continues to invest in its military and it’s navy and it will eventually be up there militarily competing with the US and Russia.

 

A trans-lantic agreement would be of the utmost importance in this respect, but the new president / billionaire business man doesn’t seem to have any interest in this approach.  At least, we haven’t heard any of his ideas beyond praising Mr. Putin for being a strong leader.

 

Henry Kissinger noted shortly before the election that “for the first time since the end of the Second World War, the future relationship of America to the world is not fully settled.” From the European point of view, that is a giant understatement.

 

The next 4 to 8 years could set the United States relationship with our European allies and with Russia back for decade depending on how the new president deals with the countries in those areas.  Trump’s “America first” could also be referred to as “America becomes an isolationist country” if some of Trump’s former statements come to fruition.

 

Today, our many world allies are looking at the US with many unanswered questions.  Unfortunately, the same questions are being asked by many Americans.

 

Copyright G.Ater  2016