LET’S LOOK AT HOW HILLARY’S CAMPAIGN IS DOING

…The Democratic National Convention is in process.

 

The first woman presidential candidates looks in pretty good shape….for now.

 

OK, we have the Democratic National Convention in process, and if all goes well after the removal of Debbie Wasserman Schultz as the DNC Chair, and after Bernie seriously endorses Hillary in the Convention Hall, will she get the bump that most candidates receive after their convention?  The answer is probably yes, but as we saw in Cleveland, anything can and will happen.

 

The older, well educated conservative pundits are now trying to compare what Hillary’s goals are with what Ronald Reagan had to deal with back in the 1980 campaign.

 

If you just look at the stats of then versus today, they do look similar in some ways and Hillary does look to be in pretty good shape at this time.

 

Back in 1979 before the ’80 election, 84% of Americans were saying that the country was on the wrong track. (Sound familiar?)  The public didn’t want Jimmie Carter, but they also were skeptical of the former Governor of California.

 

The Reagan campaign, not having today’s social media and Twitter, the GOP instead purchased TV Time for several half-hour speeches and other ads stressing Reagan’s competence.

 

Today, with so many voters reluctant to vote for Trump, they are also skeptical of Hillary.  As one Clinton adviser noted, today a president via cable & satellite TV spends more time in the average family’s living room than anyone who is not a family member. Clinton is not yet considered that congenial visiting guest.

 

As one conservative pundit has written, “[Hillary’s] opponent radiates anger, and the United States has not elected an angry president since Andrew Jackson, long before television brought presidents into everyone’s living room, where anger is discomfiting. Clinton’s campaign must find ways to present her as more likable than she seems and more likable than her adversary, both of which are very low thresholds. Regarding the threshold that matters most — those 270 electoral votes — today she would not trade places with her opponent.”

 

So, in those super important battleground states such as Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Colorado, how is Hillary doing?

 

Well, since 1976, Florida, the largest swing state, has voted somewhat more Republican than the nation.  But against Trump, Clinton is already in a statistical tie there where the Hispanic vote is growing and is moving to the left.  In addition, with the addition of Tim Kaine, who is fluent in Spanish, was very well received when he campaigned with Hillary in Florida after being chosen as her VP running mate.

 

Hillary was already doing well in Virginia, and with Virginia turning more Blue and her new running mate being the current Virginia Senator and its former Governor, she is looking even better.  She looks good and is leading in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Colorado and above the “margin-of-error”.

 

Another state that might be indicating a shift in American politics is Arizona, which hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate but once since Harry Truman in 1948 (Bill Clinton in 1996, but only by 2.2 points). In 2012, Mitt Romney defeated Barack Obama by 9 points, but the state’s minority voters have been increasing many fold and they usually vote Democratic, especially since the state is leaning more left every year.

 

As another example for Arizona, John McCain’s sixth Senate campaign has become his most difficult ever campaign. His trademark has been “straight talk”, but now he must mumble evasions about Donald Trump at the top of the Republican ticket who has disparaged McCain’s Vietnam war service. McCain, who won his five previous elections by an average of 33.4 points, today leads in the polls by only 5.5 points.

 

If Arizona becomes a presidential battleground this year, it will validate some analysts that any Trump gains for the GOP among white blue-collar votes in the Rust Belt states may be more than matched by Clinton’s gains among minorities and persons with college educations in Sunbelt states and elsewhere.

 

In addition, most Americans don’t realize that in Arizona, 5% of its population is Mormon.  However, Mormons are 8% of the state’s voter turnout.  In a competitive election, their cultural anti-tude toward Donald Trump could swing 11 electoral votes.

 

Utah Republicans in this year’s caucuses voted 69.2% for Ted Cruz, 16.8% for John Kasich and only 14% for Trump.  Utah could also be up for grabs.

 

There is no Democratic governor or senator more palatable to conservatives than Tim Kaine.  Such conservatives are eager to bring presidential power back within constitutional and legislative constraints.  One positive in choosing Kaine is that he is among the small minority of national legislators interested in officially authorizing the president's use of military force. And as a member of both the Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees, Kaine will be able to explain NATO to the “ignorant” candidate Trump.

 

Therefore, it is more and more looking like this is Hillary’s campaign to lose, only by seriously screwing up somewhere between now and November.

 

But there is almost 4 months before the big day, and as usual, anything can happen between now and then.

 

Copyright G.Ater  2016