WITH DONALD TRUMP AT THE HEAD, WHAT WILL THE GOP LOOK LIKE?

…Neither of these two former US Presidents will be supporting Donald Trump

 

Will the GOP survive having Donald Trump as their nominee?

 

You may have heard the comment from Donald Trump that he hadn't decided, until last Summer, to run for the US presidency.

 

Well, I have another view of when Trump made his decision to run.  I believe that Trump decided to run after he was humiliated by President Obama at the 2011 White House Correspondence Dinner, and after Romney lost so badly in the 2012 election.

 

So, why and how did I come to this decision?

 

Well, we have been led to believe that Trump made his decision to run for president on the “spur of the moment”.  If that’s really true, then why did Mr. Trump, just days after Romney’s 2012 defeat, file an application with the US Trademark Office for his campaign slogan: “MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN” ?

 

And for another issue, Trump always says that he is a "counter-puncher".  He says that he never strikes out at anyone until they strike at him.

 

As is always with Mr. Trump, not everything he says is ever completely true. 

 

If you recall, it was Trump that became the “Birther-in-Chief” in striking out at the president for trying to make President Obama’s presidency illegitimate.  Trump was the first to strike, and he was the one that took all the credit for the president eventually producing his long-form birth certificate issued by the state of Hawaii.  According to Trump, the president would not have done that without Trump's efforts.

 

Everyone knows that when you are a narcissist and have an ego the size of “The Donald”, there is no way he was going to take the joking criticism that had been laid on him by the most powerful man in the world.  In Trump’s mind, he had to run and do whatever it took, legal or not, to win the GOP nomination.  Early on, I don't believe he really wanted to be president, it was his giant ego that needed massaging.

 

It will be interesting to now see what will become of the GOP, after being exposed to having Donald Trump as its titular head.

 

I say all this because this party now has as its standard bearer, someone that is against free-trade agreements, is an isolationist, is, (compared to most Republicans), wishy-washy on social issues, and that supports entitlements such as Medicare-for-All and Social Security.  Not exactly the definition or description of a conservative Republican.

 

But it doesn’t stop there.

 

You may recall that after the 2012 Romney loss, there was a 2012 RNC Election Autopsy Report that said for the Republican Party to survive and grow, the party needed to become more open to obtaining minority American voters, to show more support for women’s issues and to develop and support a comprehensive immigration policy.

 

So, what do they get with their new 2016 presidential nominee?

 

Donald Trump has shattered the party’s efforts for appealing to minorities and women.  He does this first with his extreme positions for building a giant Wall along the southern US / Mexico border; also in his wanting to bar Muslims from entering the country; and he offends most women with his insulting comments.  (The Democrats are already running political ads showing all the negative comments that Trump has made against women.)

 

It is appearing that with Trump being the Republican standard bearer, one must ask what the Republican Party will look like in the years to come.

 

“As this develops, he’ll help shape, at least for this year, and maybe for a long time after that, what it means to be a Republican,” said former New Jersey governor Thomas H. Kean.

 

The former head of both the American Conservative Union and the Florida GOP, Al Cardenas said the following:  “There has been so much anger and fear and turmoil this cycle that I don’t think we’ve fully digested the philosophical bent of Trump.”

 

What the traditional conservative Republicans don’t seem to understand is that Trump truly understands the frustration of the GOP’s grass roots that has lost all faith in their party.  The Republicans have been promising their supporters things that never materialized and the fury of those constituents is today directed at those traditional Republicans. 

 

 

Unfortunately, Trump, as the "non-politician", is also promising the party's members things that will never come to fruition.

 

Reihan Salam, a conservative author has stated, “I don’t believe Trump has any beliefs. What I sense happened is he saw an opportunity, a huge disconnect of the rank and file from the elite on immigration and trade and he just exploited that.  He walked in, took advantage and recognized there was a constituency.”

 

So, how did all this happen that the GOP would end up with someone like Donald Trump being the party's top dog?

 

Well, the whole thing goes back to when the Republicans were running the show during the 9/11 attacks. Then they promoted and sponsored an unnecessary and expensive war in the Middle East, and finally they were in charge during the economic Recession of 2008.  The Bush administration also supported the financial bailouts on Wall Street, which seriously angered and alienated the party’s base. 

 

 

The response to these events sparked the rise of the Tea Party movement and the liberal's Occupy Movement.  Then there was the far-right’s on-going disappointment with the GOP controlled Congress that has not performed well and has had the lowest approval ratings in US history.

                                                                                                                      

The last time the Republicans went off the reservation with an outsider presidential nominee with no political experience was with Wendell Willkie in 1940.  Like Trump, he also had no government or military leadership experience, and we all know how well that worked for them back then. 

 

What is required of Trump today is to define a plan that will get his current unfavorable numbers down. If he can’t do that, it’ll be a very big problem for the GOP.

 

As of today, here are the Donald Trump Favorable versus Unfavorable averages of 11 national polls taken from 3/19 to 4/26:

 

Trump’s Favorable rating was: 28.4%,  his Unfavorable rating was: 65.4%.  That’s a minus -37% for Donald Trump today.  Hillary Clinton’s Favorable ratings are currently in the mid-50’s and Unfavorable rating in the high 30's.

 

The optimistic among the Republican party are hoping that Trump has the capacity to bring in new voters to the party.  But the concern is for "what kind of people will he be bringing," and what will the party look and feel like after having a leader like Donald Trump.   The party could be split into two separate groups that have very little if anything in common with each other. 

 

If the party survives as one party, the GOP’s identity and their worldview could be much different than it is today.

 

I guess only time will tell.

 

Copyright G.Ater  2016