THE NUMBERS FOR TRUMP DON’T LOOK SO GOOD

….Trump’s knowledge of how government works is the same as that of a clown

 

Financial experts say that by supporting a Trump presidency, this great nation as we know it will cease to exist.

 

It is well known by those that follow the numbers and the statistics, that once a presidential candidate is chosen by their party, the decisions by those that will be voting, or not voting, usually doesn’t change much, unless there is a major event just before the general election.

 

What I am saying is that those people that have already made up their voting minds, that decision usually doesn’t change that much after the nominee selection has been made.

 

If we go back and look at the 2012 election, that election really proved the point that the numbers for Mitt Romney after he became the candidate, pretty much stayed the same.

 

If that turns out to be the case for 2016, let’s look at where the Republican party was in 2012 and where it appears to be today.

 

In 2012, 93% of Republicans who voted, they did so for Mitt Romney. For 2016, Trump will be lucky to achieve 80% of what it appears will be a smaller Republican turnout.

 

Romney lost 73% of the Hispanic vote.  But Trump is viewed unfavorably by 82­% of Hispanics and very unfavorably by 62%.   As of today, Trump will receive significantly less than Romney’s 27% of this vote. Because of the latest increase in American voting minorities, plus Trump’s questionable policies and insults, Hispanic turnout probably will be significantly larger than in 2012. (New Hispanic registrations are up over 100% already)  This is especially true as the older, white percentage of the electorate continues to shrink.

 

For the younger voters, Romney won just 37% of young voters (18-29) and Trump is unlikely to match this number.  Of today’s Millennials, a whopping 91% would vote for Bernie Sanders.  But if Bernie doesn’t make the nomination, when asked if Bernie’s supporters would vote for Trump or Hillary, almost all of these voters did agree they would vote for Hillary or not vote at all.

 

Romney won 53­% of the married women’s vote, but he only received 44% of the total female vote.

 

Today, Trump trails Hillary Clinton among women by 19 points (35% to 54%).

 

Many women voters were turned-off when Trump testified to how he was so well-endowed.  Per Trump, “My fingers are long and beautiful, as, has been well-documented, are various other parts of my body.”

 

The women were also not impressed with Trump’s idea of masculinity when he boasted about his conquests of married women.   “Often seemingly very happily married women that “I have been able to date and bed.” 

 

It was Trump that also said this regarding the tabloid articles, “It doesn’t really matter what the media writes [about you] as long as you’ve got a young and beautiful piece of ass.”

 

The reality today is that so far, Trump has won a mere plurality of the votes in a political party that is approved by only 33% of the total electorate.

 

Trump has further tarnished the GOP brand.  Therefore, Republicans need to carry independents by more than Romney’s former five points.  The polls show that in states that have voted Republican since 2000, Trump is viewed unfavorably by 62% and strongly unfavorably by 52%.

 

But let’s look at some other numbers that are totally frightening.

 

Trump’s plan for the economy, if there is another recession, is to float a recovery plan based on his experience with corporate bankruptcy.  That in itself is frightening.

 

His idea is to buy back US Bonds and Treasury Notes at a discount.  This is something that goes against rules that were established under George Washington.

 

This move would spook investors whose trust in the US Treasury Notes keeps the global financial markets operating.  This approach would also cause interest rates to spike as investors would demand a greater return for the potential risk of non-payment.

 

Trump is basically planning to run the government like one of his failed business ventures.

 

The US government’s unfailing payments of its debt have kept investors happy for more than two centuries.  This has allowed the US to borrow at extremely low rates, and remember, all nations borrow.  Those rates would sky-rocket if the country would follow Trump’s ideas.  Defaulting on our debt in any way would be against the “Full faith and Credit” commitment that the US has always had.

 

Former Treasury experts have said, “Trump's isn’t a serious idea, it’s an insane idea.”

 

Trump doesn’t seem to understand that countries don’t run like businesses.  Nations print money and pay their bills with tax revenues.  Corporations can sell-off assets and equities to manage their debt.  Following Trump’s ideas would make a bad situation that much worse.  It would increase US borrowing costs on the debt and the US would lose its Triple A credit rating.  If the nation took Trump’s lead, the costs for supporting Medicare and Medicaid would also sky-rocket. 

 

Former heads of the Treasury have said that Trump’s idea of getting rid of the nation’s debt in 10 years is ridiculous, unless you stopped paying for all the other costs of this nation.  That includes  the military, Social Security, all of our infrastructure costs and the financial support of our Vets.

 

You will recall the last time the Republicans pushed for a default on our debt, there was the very first US credit down grade by Standard & Poors, and Senator Ted Cruz led the government shut-down that cost the nation billions of dollars.

 

So, Donald Trump has now stated that,  “I love debt.  I love playing with it, but of course your talking about something that is very fragile.”  Now, that’s an amazing understatement.

 

“The Donald” is totally ignorant as to how government actually works.  One just hopes that enough of the country understands better than “The Donald”, when they go to vote.

 

However, the American electorate is very angry.  And making important decisions when you are angry is always very risky.

 

I’m hoping the public comes to their senses before November, but anything could happen between now and then.

 

Copyright G.Ater  2016