ARE WE ON THE VERGE OF ANOTHER WORLD WAR?

…An artificial Chinese island in the South China Sea

 

China continues to challenge its neighbors as to who controls the South China Seas

 

Getting Away from the up-coming elections, another difficult issue has been developing for some time between the US and China.  One that could put the election returns on the inside pages if these two powers don’t come to some serious resolutions.

 

“This isn’t Pearl Harbor, but if people on all sides aren’t careful, it could be ‘The Guns of August,’ ” said Kurt Campbell, former assistant Secretary of State for Asia.  The “Guns of August” of course refers to the written narrative of the earliest stages of the chain of miscalculations that led to World War I. The Obama administration, Campbell says, is facing “another red line moment where it has to figure out how to carry through on past warnings.”

 

What troubles the White House is that President Obama thought he was assured by President Xi Jinping in Washington in September that China would act with restraint in the South China Sea. “China does not intend to pursue militarization,” Xi had said publicly in the White House Rose Garden.

 

This confrontation has been building for the past three years, as China has built artificial islands off its southern coast where they also installed missiles and radar in disputed waters.  All of this was done despite US warnings.

 

The international arbitration panel in The Hague is soon expected to rule that China is making “excessive” claims about its maritime sovereignty.

 

Obama Administration officials today point to China’s installation of surface-to-air missiles on Woody Island in the Paracel island chain in February and its recent installation of military radar systems on Cuarteron Reef.  This is one of the artificial islands it has created and is hundreds of miles from China’s coast.

 

As recent as last November, Obama warned against such provocative actions, telling the Asia-Pacific economic summit: “We agree on the need for bold steps to lower tensions, including pledging to halt further reclamation, new construction and militarization of disputed areas in the South China Sea.”

 

A US-China breach could seriously widen when Obama and Xi meet on March 31 at the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington.  Because China has largely ignored the US warnings, the administration’s problem now is how to assure our Southeast Asian allies who are anything but passive about a Chinese threat, and they have avoided any open military conflict to date.  But there are no guarantees.

 

This issue was brought to The Hague by the Philippines in 2013. The Philippines have argued that China was making an “excessive claim” to nearly all of the South China Sea by asserting what it calls the “nine-dash line”.  This is a claim by China based on their old maps and claims. The Hague panel is expected to issue its ruling in April or May, and Campbell and other knowledgeable experts predict that it will carefully validate the Philippine position against China.

 

Beijing has already denounced such Hague arbitration of its maritime claims.  Already US officials believe China may respond to the expected unfavorable ruling by declaring an air-defense identification zone, or “ADIZ,” in the South China Sea.  This would be where China would ban all flights in the region without Chinese permission. This would present a very dangerous provocation for Washington to respond to.

 

Of course, the military at the Pentagon argue that the US should immediately challenge any air-defense identification zone claim by flying US military planes into the area.  In other words, challenge the Chinese with B52’s on an ADIZ declared by China in the East China Sea.  This was done back in 2013 when the Chinese did declare that ADIZ in the same region.  Because an overflight had previously been scheduled, the Pentagon didn’t have to ask for White House approval.  But Pentagon officials today think that if such permission had been required, back then it would have been denied.

 

However, today the White House has a planning process underway to prepare for the looming confrontation. The latest options include an aggressive strategy in which the United States would help countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam build artificial islands of their own in disputed waters. The Philippines effectively took such a step in 1999 when it deliberately grounded a large vessel on a shoal in the Spratly Islands.  It has recently resupplied that vessel, while US drones patrol overhead.

 

The experts contend that the best course for the United States would be to work with other Southeast Asian nations to challenge the Chinese claims. This might include planes and ships from Australia, Singapore, India and European countries.

 

“You don’t want the Chinese to lose face,” says Campbell. “But you want their leadership to understand that if they continue along this path, they risk spiraling the relationship into a very negative place.”

 

But once again, the United States is being called on as a police force to protect our Asia-Pacific allies.  And as with the “Guns of August”, this could be the start of another international narrative.  But let’s hope it is not one that becomes a chain of miscalculations that leads to another World War.

 

Copyright G.Ater  2016