CENTURIES OLD NATION TRYING TO SURVIVE IN THE 21st CENTURY

…Mecca: The most important house of worship for a Muslim.

 

What did the House of Saud expect to achieve by executing a Shiite cleric?

 

Lots going on in the world today.  Iran captures and releases 10 US navy personnel and the long-tern hostage prisoners, North Korea falsely boasts they have tested a hydrogen bomb and there was a stand-off between irate property owners and the US Government in Oregon.  The weather has been tearing up the country with major floods and tornados, and of course, Daesh (ISIL) terrorists in the Middle East have attacked Turkey and they are still threatening attacks on the American homeland.

 

But now we have a new threat of a conflict that is over 1400 years old that could start another major religious war.

 

Saudi Arabia and its leaders in the House of Saud have really stepped in it this time.  The US and other democratic nations have for decades had their issues with Saudi Arabia.  In particular, their lack of having reasonable attitudes for human rights for their citizens.  Especially their negative attitude toward their Saudi women, being that it’s an outdated and extremist Sunni Muslim monarchy.

 

In addition, this same Sunni nation of Saudi Arabia and the Shiite nation of Iran have been at each other’s throats for many decades.

 

So, in this era of Saudi Arabia and the US, along with the coalition of other Western nations fighting the Islamic State, why did the House of Saudi decide to execute a famous Shiite cleric, which triggered riots in Iran.  Shia’s in Iran broke off Saudi diplomatic relations, and there is a sharp escalation in the sectarian feud that is ravaging the Middle East?

 

Why would the House of Saud make such a major blunder? 

 

Saudi Arabia is currently bogged down in a costly and unsuccessful war in Yemen.  It is also at odds with us, its superpower partner and protector, the United States.  This is because of the United States’ role in brokering the nuclear deal with its Western partners and Russia that ended Iran’s isolation.  Saudi Arabia has been against making a nuclear deal with Iran from the very beginning.

 

With all the pressure that the US continually places on the monarchy for their human rights issues and their attitude toward women, and now with making the nuclear deal with their arch enemy Iran, it appears that the Saudi leaders are feeling very vulnerable.  When nations like Saudi Arabia get into that position, sometimes they feel they have to do something impulsive.  Unfortunately, this latest move was totally counterproductive.  But that has been the on-going case with Saudi Arabia for years.

 

Now, there are those within the monarchy that have been educated out in the real world of today and that understand that Saudi Arabia needs to join the modern world. 

 

The young Saudi Deputy Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, has actually devised a plan for modernization and economic growth, using input from outside consultants.  The plan makes all the right recommendations as it boosts private enterprise, and it diversifies the economy away from Saudi dependence on oil exports.  It also reduces the traditional roles of the Saudi’s negative human rights issues.

 

But as usual, these reforms are challenged by powerful senior Saudi princes, and the reforms would totally disrupt a society that for centuries has been resistant to any change or modernization.

 

It must also be understood that the killing of the famous Shiite cleric was not their only screw-up. At the same time, the anxious Saudi leadership tried to show its resolve with the execution of 47 additional extremists.

 

Though global attention was focused on the death of Shiite cleric Sheik Nimr Baqr al-Nimr, most of the other executed men were Sunni radicals who were allied with the Islamic State, al-Qaeda and other jihadist groups.  But regardless of their motivation for killing the Shia cleric, al-Nimr’s execution was a major mistake.

 

Upon hearing that the Saudi’s had executed the Shiite cleric, the Iranians attacked the Saudi Embassy in Tehran.  The Iranian rioters scaled a 20-foot embassy fence and their first target was the embassy computer system.  The Saudis compounded their error by cutting diplomatic relations with Iran and then began pushing other Arab Gulf countries to do the same.  This all just escalated the situation.

 

Since Iran became the supreme local Shia power after Saddam and Iraq were taken out of the equation, this has really raised the tension between these two nations.

 

On top of all this, the war in Yemen is said to be costing the Saudi kingdom nearly $1 billion a month, with little to show but rubble on the ground.  Inside Yemen, the Iranian-backed rebels have retaliated by attacking towns across the border in Saudi Arabia. The Saudis had seemed eager for a UN sponsored peace talk on Yemen.  That is, until the executions occurred.

 

The real problem is that this inferno has gotten the whole region involved and out of control.

 

From Beirut to Damascus and Baghdad to Sanaa, the executions have shown just how easily the inferno can continue to expand. The United States is talking to both sides, but it also must continue to try and restrain them both. But neither country pays much attention to any outside sources.

 

Saudi Arabia’s insecurities inside their region have been a driver of conflict for 40 years.  It is important to remember that the founder of al Qaeda, Osama bin Laden was originally from Saudi Arabia.  Those in the planes that attacked the US on 9/11 were mostly from Saudi Arabia.  Due to the fears of those within their own region, the Saudi leaders have bankrolled other organizations that later were found to have been against the Saudi’s own best interests.  That includes Saudi support of the PLO’s terrorism, jihadist madrassas, al-Qaeda’s founders and Syrian warlords.

 

Riyadh, the Saudi capital city’s current enemy is Iran, but the House of Saud’s anxiety goes much deeper in the region.  The House of Saud is a group that has been allowed to do what they want to do because of their vast wealth from their fortunes in oil.  But they continue to try their living in the 21^st Century, using the rules and ways of the 12^th Century.

 

At some point, they will need to come into today’s world.

 

But will it be in my life time, or that of our children?  Probably not.

 

Copyright G.Ater  2016