IS CALIFORNIA A PREVIEW OF THE GOP’S NATIONAL FUTURE?

The American Melting Pot

 

Will the nation’s demographics eventually mirror those of California?

For years, just as the usually Republican southern states on the East Coast have been referred to as the conservative “Right Coast”, California has also been called the liberal “Left Coast”.  Now with 4 out of 7 Republican Governors since 1967, California hasn’t always been a “Liberal Left Coast”.  In the three presidential elections of the 1980s, California voted twice for Ronald Reagan and once for George H. W. Bush. But nationally, California has not gone Republican since.  And it won’t get any easier for the GOP in 2016.

In addition, the Republicans have learned that with the demographics of the state changing at such a fast and steady rate, they have been reacting much too slowly to those changes.  This has since devastated the GOP on the “Left Coast”.

Even though the Republicans have done reasonably well at California’s local and county levels, the Republicans are still vastly outnumbered in both state houses.  25-14 in the state Senate, 52-28 in the Assembly, and the Democrats picked up a seat in 2014 in the nation’s  House of Representatives.

So, why is the “Left Coast” expected to stay Democratic?  The main reason is how the Republicans have alienated women, Latinos, Asian Americans and African Americans in a state whose population is now classified as having a majority of nonwhite voters.  And that doesn't include the fact that more women vote in California than men.

You are probably aware that it’s been said many times that social changes in America usually start in either California or New York.  As the nations is also going through many of these same changes, is this just another example of what the rest of the nation will be looking like in the coming years?

All the latest Republican presidential candidates so far have been saying that the nation needs a change.  But based on what’s been happening with the nation’s demographics, they might want to be careful about what they are asking for.  The changes that do occur, may not be in the areas the conservatives would be wishing for….?

In California it all started back in 1994 when the Republican Governor Pete Wilson came out in strong support of Proposition 187.  This was the ballot measure that barred illegal immigrants from a variety of state services.  The end result of that measure was the total alienation of California's Hispanic voters from the GOP.  It also began the mobilization of many of them into the state’s political process.  This same kind of alienation has been occurring by the GOP towards the state’s women, Asian Americans and African Americans.  These same changes are now happening on a national basis.

For national elections, the growing anti-immigrant sentiment in the GOP has cut the Republicans’ Latino share of the vote from around 40% for George W. Bush to only 27% for Mitt Romney in 2012. The Republican‘s strenuous opposition to President Obama’s executive actions on immigration is only making this problem that much worse.

Op-ed Author, E.J. Dionne recently wrote in the Washington Post: “Rep. Xavier Becerra, a Democrat whose California district here includes Koreatown, Little Tokyo, Chinatown and Historic Filipinotown, notes that when he was first elected to Congress in 1992, a large share of Asian Americans leaned Republican. That’s no longer true, and both Becerra and Rep. Lieu pinpointed the immigration issue as the primary cause for the shift.”

And let’s not forget the effect that the GOP’s opposition to the Dream Act is having.  This act was designed to give relief to illegal immigrants brought to the United States as minors.  This is also upsetting the state's Asian Americans.  Rep. Ted Lieu, a Democrat who was elected to Congress in 2014 has said: “Republicans were saying, ‘Come support us, we like you, but we want to deport your children.’ ”

The California Republican State Chairman has stated the following, “In 2012, Mitt Romney carried 59 percent of the white vote and he carried independents. In 2004, this would have elected him president. In 2000, it would have given him an Electoral College landslide. In 2012, it gave him second place.”

As I had asked, “Is California’s history just a precursor for what is occurring nationally?”

I guess only time will tell.

Copyright G.Ater  2015