OPINION POLLS DEMONSTRATE THE RACIAL DIVIDE IN AMERICA

…A classic polling graphic

 

Today’s American racial divide is reminiscent of 50 years ago.

 

Being an op-ed blogger since 2007, I have had to research and rely on different areas of statistics and the many different results of political polling.  Under those circumstances, one becomes aware that some polls and organizations are usually slanted toward one philosophy or the other, and it’s very important to know which poll is leaning which way.

Today, due to the situation and availability of the internet, there is now readily available a list of the major polling companies and to what extent they tend to be either conservative or liberal leaning.  With this information now readily available, it has become clear that the conservative or Republican leaning polls are about 2 to 1, versus liberal or Democratic leaning polls.  Even those that we think of as being mostly neutral or generic, such as the Gallup, Nielsen and Harris polls, those tend to be shaded to a more conservative position instead of being real middle-of-the-road polls.

So, it appears that the polling organizations feel that, if there is a choice, it’s better for them to be a bit more conservative than liberal, when giving out their opinions on a given issue.

By far, the latest opinion polling company that has set the latest standard is not a typical polling company at all.  FiveThirtyEight (538) is a polling aggregation website created by Mr. Nate Silver. The website and the organization takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college.

During the past 2 US presidential primaries and general elections, the 538 site compiled polling data through a unique methodology derived from Mr. Silver's experience in baseball statistical metrics.  This method is used to "balance out the polls with comparative demographic data" and "weighting each poll based on the pollster's historical track record, sample size, and recentness of the poll".  This is very different from traditional opinion polls.

But for the most part, as revolutionary as Mr. Silver’s new statistical polling site and process is, most of the polling companies have stayed with their traditional way of taking and reporting their polling results. 

Therefore, as an example, when I look at a Rasmussen poll, I know that the way they ask their polling questions, if the results are more Democratic leaning than Republican, either they asked the question wrong, or it really is a more liberal leaning result.  In other words, Rasmussen is kind of known for asking questions such as, “When did you stop beating your wife?” or “Is it true that conservatives are smarter than liberals?’

Obviously, their questions aren’t that blatant, but there is no question that Rasmussen, YouGov and the Wall Street Journal polls will be more conservative than any liberal or middle-of-the-road operation.

So, why am I giving you a primer on the different political polls?

…The latest liberal / conservative divide in the US.

The point is that I have always felt that the PEW Research Polls were one of the most accurate and neutral of the traditional polling organizations.  They tend to not always focus on Republican versus Democrats, or conservative versus liberal issues, but instead tend to ask basic questions about current events or about matters of civil rights or other racial issues with a serious lack of bias.

In this latest case, they have taken on the issues of what has been going on in Ferguson, Missouri, with the killing of the African American teenager Michael Brown by a white, Ferguson policeman.  Based on what has come from the polling of Americans around the country, this issue is still in its formation stages.  But, Americans are now seeing that what has happened in Ferguson may be a look at what is, or will be, going on all over the country.

As an example, in July 2013, after the killing of the black teenager, Trayvon Martin in Florida, it was found that only 28% of whites said the case raised important racial issues, while 60% said that race was getting too much attention.  Among white Americans polled this month about the Michael Brown killing in Ferguson, 37% said the case raises important issues about race, while 47% said “the issue of race is getting more attention in this case than it deserves.”

Now, in the same Pew Research Center survey of only black Americans this month, 80% they said the case “raises important issues about race that need to be discussed,” while 65% said that the police response had gone too far

With a disparity as wide as this between these two races, this says that as Americans, we all need to keep a close eye as to what is going on in America.

Now, the Trayvon Martin case was a situation between a private neighborhood watchman and a black teenager.  It was not between a black citizen and a local police officer, so it’s very possible that the direct involvement of the police officer in Michael Brown’s death is the major difference in this case.

But the way the locals are now communicating the disparity between the way the black Americans in the area are treated versus white Americans, the situation of many black American’s community’s civil rights issues are once again beginning to raise their ugly heads.

For white American citizens nation-wide, regarding the Ferguson situation, there is even more disparity.

Even though many white Americans apparently have yet to form an opinion of the police response in Ferguson, MO, 32% of those polled did say the response has been “about right,” while 33% said it has “gone too far”.  But an astonishing 35% declined to even express an opinion. Many white Americans are still watching, and listening.  Now that may be good….or then, maybe not.  Only time will tell.

When it comes to how much “confidence these two groups have in the current investigations of Brown’s killing”, Carroll Doherty, Pew’s director of political research, provided a detailed breakdown of the opinions:

White Americans:

·       14% had a “Great deal of confidence”.

·       38% had a “Fair amount of confidence”

·       10% had “None at all.”

African Americans :

·       5% had “A great deal of confidence.”

·       12% had “A fair amount of confidence.”

·       31% had “Not too much confidence.”

·       45% had “Zero confidence.”

This is an undeniable racial divide: Whites were three times more likely than African Americans to have significant confidence in the inquiries, while 43 % of African Americans and 60% of whites positioned themselves at one of the two midpoints on the scale.

…A typical polling question

What was the most striking to PEW was that while 54% of African Americans were closely following the news about the shooting and the protests, only 25% of white said they were.

From PEW Research’s point of view, it was not surprising that blacks and whites see the appalling episodes of this event somewhat differently, given the nation’s history with racism.

The reality is that both races in America need to demand a thorough investigation of Michael Brown’s death.  This case, with the current attention of the US Attorney General, the nation’s most powerful law enforcement official, as well as the attention of the first black US President, there is no reason that this should not become the foundation for the next positive phase for dealing once again with this nation’s racial diversity.

But from this point forward, it is totally dependent as to how impartial and complete the Michael Brown investigation and prosecution is performed.  It is also important that no bias is shown by those prosecuting those involved with the case.  So far, the mostly white Ferguson police officials have not shown the best foot-forward in dealing with Michael Brown’s killing. 

Hopefully, the subsequent duel investigations by the FBI and the Justice Department will make sure that everyone will get their fair day in court.

Everyone needs to stay tuned on this one.

Copyright G.Ater  2014