WILL THE GUARDRAILS OF DEMOCRACY BE STRONG ENOUGH?

 

…The January 6^th Attack on the U.S. Congress may only be the first violent attack

 

The January 6^th Assault on the U.S. Capitol marked the reality of the “Party of Trump”

 

A century and a half ago, the debate over slavery ultimately brought on what we call the Civil War.  But the outcome of that war prevented the United States from splitting apart between the North and the South.

Today, there are concerns about the future of the U.S. that have become so clear that three retired generals have warned in a recent op-ed that the country could be heading toward another insurrection after the 2024 election.  If there is also a military breakdown, that could lead to another Civil War. The generals are not alone in their fears.

Through much of the country’s history, despite some serious debate, those on the opposing sides, eventually, they found a common ground in their shared values.  But today, thanks to the fracturing of all of our normal information sources, things have changed.  Due to a less-than-honest, social media environment, and the increased hostility between the opposing sides, those relationships have been weakened to a very serious point.

That weakening leaves open some questions.  Such as: Who or what protects democracy from crumbling?  All we seem to have is a belief in its value and the possible goodwill of citizens on whatever side of the political divide they live, to protect it.  Are there any real guardrails?  Are the presidency, Congress, the Department of Justice, the Supreme Court and the lower courts, the local officials or the citizens themselves?  Are they capable and prepared if the need is there?  Unfortunately, these questions, since the start of this year, remain unanswered.

The Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol, as shocking as it was when it happened, might have seemed, at the time, like what happened in the starting of the last, Civil War.  These Trump loyalists were desperate in their unsuccessful attempt to help the then president for disrupting the final certification of the new president’s election.

Instead, the assault marked the blossoming of a new Republican Party with a majority that today, remains in denial about what happened in the 2020 election, and what took place at the Capitol that day. On the anniversary of the event that shook the country and ushered in a year of new threats to democracy itself, the questions about the strength of the electoral system have rarely been more urgent.

Though fierce debate has long been part of the American experience, the founders likely did not anticipate the severe conditions that exist today.  Such as, that a major political party in which many or most of the followers embrace a former president’s falsehoods.  Some of them even traffic in conspiracy theories; and they support the former president’s unrelenting efforts to sow division and spread misinformation.  And now, a largely broken U.S. Congress struggles to function collectively to protect democracy itself, or it just seems to lack the will to do so.

Alan Abramowitz, an Emory University political scientist, noted that in 2020, democracy’s guardrails did in fact, hold. The U.S. Courts repeatedly had rejected the false claims and pleas from the former president and his allies to overturn the results.  Georgia Secretary of State, Brad Raffensperger, had resisted the direct badgering from President Trump to change Georgia’s certified election results.  Congress then completed the ratification of the electoral college results in those early morning hours after that assault on the Capitol.

But Mr. Abramowitz said he is not confident things would play out the same way in the future.  “There is a growing concern that the next time we see an attempt by a defeated candidate to overturn the results of a fair and free election, it may have a much greater chance of success because of widespread support from leaders and voters from the defeated candidate’s party, and possibly even from the courts and election officials,” he said in an email exchange

Lilliana Mason, a political scientist at Johns Hopkins University’s SNF Agora Institute, said the fact that the guardrails worked also, it ironically, also gave them greater visibility, making these protections the targets of those who would weaken them. “The guardrails held because everybody agreed that they were important, that they were a necessary part of the road, to try to stop the car from going off the road,” she said. “But the rhetoric that we’ve seen since the election, I think, has made keeping the car on the road less of a priority.”

A combined commitment to democracy is based on an acceptance of us to follow the norms.  Today, Ms. Mason added that the Republican Party is largely enforcing loyalty to Trump rather than holding to traditional norms of opposition to anti-government violence, or the efforts in states to make it easier to block the certification of election results.

We must remember, Trump was widely condemned for helping to incite the rioters who stormed and occupied the Capitol.  Those who criticized him in the moment included prominent Republican leaders, among them current Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). Many of them, like McConnell, have since changed their rhetoric and some, including Minority Leader McCarthy, have even sought the former president to curry his favor.  The U.S. Representative, Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), stands as a rare sentinel in her party, putting her political career at risk to call out the former president as a serious threat.

Meanwhile, a year after the Jan. 6 attack was lambasted across the political spectrum, 34% of Americans, including 40% of Republicans, 41% of independents and 23% of Democrats, say there are times when it is “justified to use violence against the government.” This is according to a Washington Post / University of Maryland poll.  That percentage is even higher than in past polls dating back decades.

Questions about accountability for Trump, for his role in the Capitol assault, continue to be raised by one side, but hey are dismissed by the other side.  Of course, this is dismissed without offering any evidence.  The House committee investigating Jan. 6 could recommend that legal action be taken to hold the former president accountable.  But, whether the Justice Department has the guts to make such a case is highly questionable.  It is obviously, not an easy call for a number of legal and political reasons. Trump’s future as a political figure and a force, will likely have to be settled at the ballot box.  And the existence of today’s “Trumpism” might outlive Trump’s active candidacy.

What marks the anniversary of the Jan. 6 assault is that attitudes and perceptions among Trump’s voters have changed so little. According to The Post-UMD poll, most Americans today say Trump bears either “some” or “a lot” of responsibility for what happened that day, which included the president encouraging his followers to head to the Capitol to “show strength” and to “stop the steal”.  But 83% of Trump voters and 72% of Republicans still somehow say, he bears little or no responsibility.  In fact, among those Trump voters, 61% say he bears no responsibility at all.

While most Americans agree there is no solid evidence to support Trump’s claims of widespread irregularities in the 2020 election, 64% of Trump voters say there is evidence, but none has been offered up.  Despite the absence of evidence to support those claims that the system is beset with fraud, there is much evidence to the contrary.  Trump voters have moved only marginally over the past year on this fundamental question about the 2020 election.

In this election year, the political stakes will be especially high, and with it new attention on the workings of democracy.  The Republicans have their sights set on taking control of the House and perhaps the Senate. Biden is beset with challenges. His approval rating has sagged and his signature legislative proposal, the Build Back Better plan, remains in limbo with more negotiations ahead. Democrats are frustrated and worried. Covid is still a danger. Trump, is in full control of his party.  He continues to pressure fellow Republicans to embrace his election falsehoods.  His sights are apparently set on still running again in 2024.  Meanwhile, Democratic-sponsored voting legislation continues to be blocked in the Senate.

Much of the focus in coming months will be on the question of who will wield power in Congress next January. The answer inevitably will have an impact on questions about the future of U.S. elections and the institutions of democracy. How would a Republican-controlled Congress deal with a disputed election in early 2025?  These are today’s questions.

In the days just before Jan. 6, 2021, it seemed possible to think that the country was moving toward calmer and less contentious times, with a coming change in administrations, an incoming president pledging unity and the lowering of temperatures, and that a deadly virus able to be overcome collectively with newly developed vaccines.

Unfortunately, few today would say the year ahead looks anything like the beginnings of a coming together on any front.

Instead it has begun in a charged environment amid heightened attention to whether the guardrails will hold, if they are needed once again.

The real issue is with the current activities for changing those running the many elections in the states. The questions is, will the guardrails be strong enough, or will they be followed by those that are in power in 2022 and 2024? 

If the “Trump Party” is successful in making their state election changes, the U.S. democracy may in fact, just disappear.

Copyright G. Ater 2022