NORTH KOREA’S LEADER IS DETERMINED TO MAKE IT A “NUCLEAR WEAPONS NATION”

…The Dictator of North Korea, Kim Jong Un

 

The boy-dictator, is having his military develop an intercontinental ballistic missile.

 

When I read about the latest leader of North Korea, it reminds me of the of the stories of the spoiled brat of a wealthy billionaire that never had anyone tell him “no”, or a child that never had his hands slapped.  (You know, someone like our new president-elect.)

 

This young Korean dictator is so set on making his very poor country, a country that wouldn’t even exist today without the support of their big neighbor China, this leader is determined to be a nuclear threat to any free nation.  This individual is now in possession of what is estimated to be a dozen nuclear bombs.  These bombs are each estimated to be as destructive as the bombs used by the US on Hiroshima in WWII. 

 

Now, this boy-dictator, is also having his military develop an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that once tested and proven, would be able to reach South Korea, Japan or even the west coast of the United States.

 

Needless to say, the US has developed programs that are designed to shoot-down and protect our allies and our homeland, but North Korea is just one of our “enemies” that would like to have this nuclear capability.  Others of those against the free world such as Iran, or even ISIS, they would love to have access to the materials and knowledge for building “their own bomb”.

 

But when you have a leader such as Kim Jong Un’s father that ruled this small nation with a steel fist and who sealed his nation’s borders so that no one could leave or enter without the leader’s permission.  This way, the head guy can pretty much do and a say whatever they want for running the country.

 

Now, the spoiled son who took his father’s place, has decided to take on the free world and to join those countries that also have nuclear weapons capability.  Fortunately, the nations that have that ability today have developed their weapons just for deterring their centuries-old enemies.  This is why both India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons.  And it is the reason for the democratic European nations and the US to have nuclear devices for deterring the communist nations of Russia and China from threatening to use their nuclear weapons.  “Assured total destruction” has been a way of life on this globe since the advent of the atomic bomb.

 

But with “rogue nations” like North Korea or Iran, they have made it clear that if they had “the bomb”, their goal would be to erase countries like the US and Israel from the face of the earth, even if the response would mean the martyred death of most of their own people.

 

The threat from North Korea is real.  They not only have that dozen nuclear bombs, they have also conducted five nuclear tests.  The capital city of Pyongyang also has that robust ballistic missile program.  It has fielded a large number of medium-range missiles and is currently testing that long-range ICBM missiles that could reach Japan or the US.

 

In 1994, we came perilously close to a second Korean War because of North Korea’s nuclear program. Today we are again approaching a crisis with North Korea, and again the cause is its nuclear program. A war in 1994 would have been terrible, but we were able to avoid it with diplomacy called the Agreed Framework.  But this agreement collapsed in 2002 and North Korea once again began operating its nuclear facilities. 

 

The second major diplomatic effort was the Six-Party Talks initiated in August of 2003 which involved China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea, and the United States. In between the periods of stalemate and crisis, those talks arrived at critical breakthroughs in 2005, when North Korea then pledged to abandon “all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs” and return to the Agreed Framework, and in 2007, all the parties agreed on a series of steps to implement that 2005 agreement.

 

But those talks, broke down in 2009 following major disagreements over nuclear verification and an internationally condemned North Korea rocket launch.

 

Under their new younger leader, Pyongyang has since stated that it would never return to nuclear talks and is no longer bound by any former agreements. The other five parties have stated that they remain committed to the talks and have called for Pyongyang to recommit to its 2005 denuclearization pledge, but North Korea is instead focused on their nuclear and ICBM program.

 

And this is the focus as many in this small country are dying due to their lack of food and critical medical care.

 

Today, a nuclear or conventional war would be no less catastrophic, possibly destroying the societies of both of the Koreas as well as causing large casualties in the US military.  It is imperative that we try to employ creative diplomacy to avert such a catastrophe.

 

The pressure seriously boiled over recently when Kim Jong Un announced plans for a new test of their ICBM.  Yes, the same one that could deliver a nuclear warhead to the continental United States.

 

So the question is not whether but when, Pyongyang will have a nuclear-armed ICBM. Its ICBM program is not yet fully operational, and it must take many difficult steps to make it so. But this is a high-priority program moving at a fast pace. There is no reason to doubt that at some point, it will reach an operational capability, perhaps in the next couple of years.

 

In reply to this, President-elect Donald Trump has tweeted, “It won’t happen,” seemingly suggesting he might take military action against North Korea’s missile program, once he is at the helm.

 

But the goals of this small nation are not irrational, and the leaders do not have the objective of achieving martyrdom, as do many of the Muslim countries. The goals of North Korea are, in order of their priorities: preserving the current “Kim dynasty”; their gaining international respect; and improving their national economy.  They believe being "nuclear" will do all of this.

 

The danger of a North Korean ICBM program is not that they would launch an unprovoked attack on the United States as they do not appear to be suicidal. But they have been playing their weak nuclear hand for decades, and with Kim Jong Un, they continue to demonstrated a willingness to take risks in playing this game.

 

The real danger of their ICBM program is that it might embolden them to take even greater risks and overplay their hand in a way that could lead to a military conflict with their #1 enemy, South Korea. The South Korean military, backed by US air and naval power and a small US ground force, is more than a match for the large and poorly equipped North Korean military.

 

But if North Korea were to start something and if they were to begin losing a conventional military conflict, they might in desperation turn to their nuclear weapons.

 

So, what can be done to avoid the danger of such an attack?

 

In 2006, Ashton B. Carter, the current Secretary of Defense, had recommended that the United States consider a strike on North Korea’s ICBM launch facility.  That idea is not recommended today because of the great risk for South Korea.   In addition, at the very least, any such plan would have to be agreed to by South Korea’s leadership, since their country would bear the brunt of any retaliatory action.

 

Most inside the US government still believe in giving diplomacy a chance to succeed. We lost that opportunity to negotiate with a non-nuclear North Korea when George W. Bush cut off negotiations in 2001, before North Korea had a nuclear arsenal.

 

But the most we can reasonably expect today is an agreement that lowers the dangers of that nuclear arsenal. The goal would be an agreement with Pyongyang to not export nuclear technology, to conduct no further nuclear testing and to conduct no further ICBM testing.

 

 

These goals are worth achieving and, could be the basis for a later discussion of a non-nuclear Korean Peninsula. These objectives are far less than we would desire, but are based on the belief that we should deal with North Korea as it is, not as we wish it to be.

 

If North Kores as expected, were to reject a serious diplomatic approach by the US, there is the possibility of disrupting their ICBM tests from the areas of international waters.  US diplomacy would have a much better chance of working with Kim Jong Un if North Korea realized that the US is serious about using non-diplomatic alternatives if necessary.

 

In addition, if an attempt at diplomacy fails, then we could also consider much more punishing economic sanctions, but that would require China’s significant participation.

 

The key issue is that time is of the essence. If we don’t find a way soon for freezing North Korea’s quest for a nuclear ICBM, this crisis could easily spin out of control and lead to a second Korean War.  And this war would be far more devastating than the first war.

 

My real concern here is the president-elect’s answer of “It won’t happen.” 

 

With a man like Trump with absolutely no knowledge or experience in foreign affairs, and for someone that actually said during his election campaign: “If we didn’t plan on using them, why did we invent them [nuclear weapons]?”

 

What will this man that controls the nation’s nuclear powers do in order to make sure that, “It won’t happen”…?

 

 

Sounds kinda frightening doesn't it?
 

 

Copyright G.Ater  2017