LET'S LOOK AT WHAT'S GOING ON IN THE STATES, IN THE ELECTION

…American Ethnic Demographics as of the 2010 US census (In 1960, white’s made up 85% of the nation.)

 

Remember, in America, many more women go to the polls to vote, than do men.

 

Ok, I’m getting off of my rants directly about Donald Trump and his ridiculous campaign. 

 

Let’s instead look at what’s going on around the nation due to the demographic changes that have been crossing the country.

 

Two states in particular are looking very much like what the current Republican Party is having to deal with on a national basis.

 

Now the Quinnipiac polls have always been more favorable to the GOP than those such as the NBC/Wall Street Journal polls, which seem to always be a bit more liberal.

 

But lately, the Quinnipiac polls have also illustrated the latest dynamic. They find that Hillary Clinton is leading Trump among likely voters in Virginia by 50-38, and she’s leading in Colorado by 49-39. In Iowa, which is always a less diverse Midwestern state, it’s much closer, with Clinton only ahead by 47-44.

 

But it’s not just that Hillary is in the lead.  The issue is, “Who are the individuals that make up that lead?”

 

Hillary Clinton holds huge leads over Trump among women and college educated whites in both Colorado and Virginia.  More than 60% of these voter groups have unfavorable views of Trump.  And they are not just unfavorable views of Trump, they are “strongly unfavorable views of Trump”.

 

In Virginia alone, Clinton leads among women by 56-31, and among college educated whites, both men and women by 54-36.

 

Among Virginia women, 60% have a “strongly unfavorable view of Trump”, and among college educated white men and women, 62% have a have a “strongly unfavorable view of Trump”.

 

Clinton also picks up the support of 13% of Republican voters.

 

Now by contrast, Trump leads by 46-42 among all men and by 59-30 among non-college degree white men.

 

The numbers in Colorado show Clinton’s lead among women by 53-34, and among college educated whites by 58-33. In contrast, Clinton only leads among Colorado men by 45-43, and Trump leads among non-college white men by 49-32

 

Among all Colorado women, 64% have a “strongly unfavorable view of Trump”, and among college educated white women, 64% have a “strongly unfavorable view of Trump”.

 

And remember, nationally, more women vote than men.

 

Now, much of the demographic changes in Virginia. is because they have had tremendous growth of the college-educated white population in the northern suburbs of D.C..  In addition, the growth of the nonwhite population have slowly been edging Virginia into the Blue column.

 

In Colorado, it’s a different issue as it’s the growth of the Latino population that is making it challenging for Republicans.  (As we already know, the GOP has serious issues in attracting Hispanics, especially with Donald Trump and his wanting to build a Wall and deport 11 million illegal Hispanics.)

 

In both of these states, due to Trump’s influence, these key demographics are making major difficulties for the Republicans even tougher. They render Trump’s hopes of winning impossible by unleashing a white backlash.  What’s more, if Clinton can put those states away, it puts still more pressure on Trump to win in a highly improbable fashion by holding all the Romney 2012 states.  Then he would also need to pull off an unlikely run-of-the-table in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  As of today, Trump is behind Hillary in these states in double digits.

 

Remember, that I mentioned that the Quinnipiac polls sometimes have a slight GOP lean.  And last month, they showed Trump being very competitive.  The assistant polling director for Quinnipiac, was saying that Quinnipiac polling only a few weeks ago showed Trump doing reasonably well with women and college educated whites, or at least well enough to keep the race very close.

 

But now, the same individual is saying, “Trump’s not doing so well among the same types of voters that he was doing fine with before the Republican convention.”

 

All this is just showing the deeper changes that Trump has been exacerbating.

 

The reality is that, Virginia and Colorado were solidly Red states 15 years ago.  But now, both of these states represent “a much larger swath of the electorate.” The latest results, in both of these once-Red states, Trump trails by major double digits.

 

Trump’s horrible struggles with college educated whites and women in both of these states, this is a close look at what’s going on across the US, and it ain’t good for the Republican party.

 

This also explains why and how badly Trump’s convention failed at expanding his appeal.  In addition, it also shows how much damage the Democratic convention may have done to Trump, particularly after he helped amplify all of the messages coming out of it, by picking a protracted fight with the Khan family.

 

This seriously tells the whole story of this partisan race.

 

At the very moment that demographically changes are occurring in states such as Virginia and Colorado, Trump is reshuffling his campaign in a way that is alienating the very voter groups he needs to prevent that from happening.

 

Watch this space.

 

Copyright G.Ater  2016