AFTER THE ELECTION, WILL THE GOP FORGET THAT TRUMP WAS THEIRS?

…This is a picture of our nation’s future voters…live with it!

 

If Trump loses, can the GOP make people forget that Trump was ever their nominee.

 

For anyone that is paying any attention to what is going on around them in America, they would all have to say “Yes, we are becoming a more diverse country.”  This is not just true here in Silicon Valley, where our world has changed immensely since the 50’s and 60’s, but also in states such as Kansas and Nebraska where their Hispanic and Asian populations have also increased.

 

Now that we have a major presidential election just over the hill, historically the political scientists have been able to use just a few data points, most importantly the economy, and they have been able to predict with a high degree of accuracy, who was going to win the presidential election.

 

But what’s different about this year: Though we will continue to talk a lot about the economy, this election, it may matter less than ever for determining who becomes the next president.

 

As to the two major party’s nominees, not much is different in their on-going stump speeches.

 

The Democrats are saying that things are better than when Obama took office, much still needs to be done, especially with the grid-lock in Washington, and more worker-friendly policies and government investments is needed in things such as infrastructure, and in health care and universal Internet access.

 

Of course, the Republicans are right on que saying that the economy is a total disaster, and as usual, their answer is to cut taxes and reduce regulations on businesses.

 

But as usual, both parties agree that the other guy’s plans would bring total ruin down upon all of us.

 

The point here is that in the past, as some organizations are saying, the data today says “there’s time for a change”, and that data would normally say that Trump would be winning in spite of what the polls are saying today.

 

But all that data doesn’t take a few things into consideration, and only one of them accounts for Trump himself.

 

What is changing all the potential outcomes is more about what is going on with today’s potential voters.

 

Where it has been “the economy” in a “change era”, that most white American voters are concerned, today the state of the economy isn’t the most important issue for nonwhite voters.

 

This issue was also the case back in the 2012 election.

 

Less than 20% of American white voters who thought the economy was getting worse supported Obama in 2012, or for Clinton this 2016.  However, nearly half of all Latinos and 85% of African-Americans who think the economy is getting worse, they still support the Democratic candidate.

 

What all this means is that over time, the power of the nation’s economy is going to decrease for the average American voter.  Nonwhite voters are rapidly growing as a proportion of the voting electorate.

 

As an example, in 1980, the non-white voter made up 12% of America’s voters. In 2000, it was 19%.  For 2016, most projections say that non-white voters will make up around 31% of all voters.

 

For 2016, we will also see a new generation of minority voters who are so turned off by Trump that they could become Democrats for good. Is it possible that Latinos and Asian Americans, which are the fastest-growing American minority group, they could become nearly as loyal to the Democratic party as are most of today’s African Americans.

 

So what would something like that do to the two parties?

 

It would obviously be disastrous for the GOP that continues to have trouble attracting any American minorities.  However, a lot would still depend on what happens between now and 2020.

 

It is true that If Trump loses, the next four years would probably be somewhat of a replay of the past eight years.  If that were to happen, the Republican Party would probably still be focused on obstructing the Democratic president.  Their base would most likely become even more conservative.

 

Some pundits are already expecting that the GOP will again run the next presidential primary race where the winner is the candidate that is most capable for activating an angry electorate.  An electorate that is cheered on by their support of white nationalism.

 

If it happens as it did this time, that could take those trends and cast them in stone for future primaries.

 

Or there’s another, smaller group, that  sees a realization on the Republicans’ part that something has to change.  The party could then genuinely reach out to minorities and might nominate someone for president with a much broader appeal.

 

Either of these scenarios is possible, but the latter today doesn’t seem very plausible.  

 

At the moment, the experts are saying that given both the nation’s demographic changes and our increasing partisan polarization, while the economy still matters to presidential races, it may matter only when it’s in an extreme state.

 

That just means that if we are either in a major boom state or in another recession on election day, then the outcome of the presidential race will still be a foregone conclusion for making a change.

 

But if the economy is lazing along in that middle range, where it is now…..not great, but not terrible, then there’s more room for both party’s candidates to control their fates.

 

So, what the hell does all this mean?

 

What it says is that based on how Trump is doing, he is giving some Republicans who are less than satisfied with him or the economy, a reason to cross party lines.

 

At this point, Republicans that are thinking that Trump will lose, they just need to hope that once this election is over, they can make people forget that Trump was ever their nominee.

 

Copyright G.Ater  2016