WILL PUTIN ACTUALLY INVADE UKRAINE?

 

    …The Russian dictator seems serious about rebuilding what was the Soviet Union

 

Ukrainians have been in a virtual war with Russia for years

 

The U.S. keeps saying that “the Russian army could invade Ukraine at any moment”.  This is because the leader of Russia has added over 100,000 troops on the Ukraine’s border and they are staging military exercises as we speak.

However, the citizens of Ukraine have a different attitude toward a possible invasion.

The Ukraine has downplayed a possible incursion by Russia saying they do not to believe the “apocalyptic predictions” after US officials said Moscow had assembled 80% of the military force needed for a full-scale invasion.

Unnamed American officials were quoted as saying in their US media reports that they were briefed that an operation to quickly capture the capital Kyiv, toppling the democratically elected President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, was among the most aggressive possibilities for Russian intervention against Ukraine.

In such a scenario, between 25,000 to 50,000 civilian casualties were possible with as many as 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed, US officials were cited as saying.

But Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba questioned the risk to Kyiv.

“Do not believe the apocalyptic predictions. Different capitals have different scenarios, but Ukraine is ready for any development,” he tweeted in Ukrainian only, suggesting the message was intended only for a domestic audience.

“Today, Ukraine has a strong army, unprecedented international support, and Ukrainians’ faith in their country. The enemy should be afraid of us, not us of them.”

The chances of finding a diplomatic solution to the crisis remained “substantially higher than the threat of further escalation”, stated by the Ukraine’s presidency adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak.

Zelenskyy’s government has in recent weeks played down the Russian threat in what is thought to be an attempt to stabilize markets and prevent panic among the population.  This is even as the US warned an attack could be imminent and NATO forces were put on alert.

The US and UK have been accused of exaggerating the risk of a Russian attack, something the both the UK and the US has categorically denied.

‘What will Russia gain if they attack Ukraine?’

Russia could hit Ukraine with acts of sabotage, cyberattacks, and other destabilizing moves with the goal of removing the current government in Kyiv, the US news reports said.

Russia challenged the information delivered in the reporting.

“Another masterpiece of US propaganda war,” said Russian diplomat Dmitry Polyanskiy.

“Unnamed officials, undisclosed sources, no evidence. And as we all saw, if you openly question such fakes you won’t get answers and will be labeled Russian apologist,” he wrote on Twitter on Sunday.

Pavel Luzin, a Russia security analyst, said an estimation of the size of the military buildup can vary depending on how it is counted, and it was hard to assess the veracity of claims from unnamed officials.

He said he still does not believe a full-scale invasion is possible and an operation in eastern Ukraine that would make Russian presence in the two separatist territories, the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic, more visible was more likely.

“There are hundreds of kilometers to travel, urban environments to face, tens of millions of people, relatively capable institutions of state and well-organized and experienced armed forces to deal with, as well as the absence of allies among Ukrainian citizens on the ground and the international community,” he said.

“What will Russia gain from an invasion, even if such invasion promises to be successful? Nothing. And there is no clear political purpose for this action.”

He said an unveiling of Russian forces in Donbas, however, would help Moscow achieve its aims of demoralizing the Ukrainian military and forcing Kyiv to accept its vision of the Minsk agreement, an old, 2014 deal that sought to end war in Donbas.

‘Consider all possibilities’

Theresa Fallon, director of the Center for Russia Europe Asia Studies, said one “frightening” aspect of the news reports was that US intelligence believes Putin may hold nuclear exercises in the region over the next month.

Russia possesses the largest nuclear arsenal in the world with an estimated 4,500 warheads, and any such maneuvers would send a serious message to NATO, she said.

Fallon also noted Europe has not seen such large Russian troop movements since the Cold War.

“In order to have peace you must prepare for war so you have to consider all possibilities. And if there should be, God forbid, a war there would be high civilian casualty rates among the civilian population,” she told Al Jazeera.

Polyanskiy, a Russian representative to the United Nations, called the US media reports released over the weekend “madness and scaremongering”.

“What if we would say the US could seize London in a week and cause 300K civilian deaths? All this based on our intelligence sources that we won’t disclose,” said Polyanskiy.

Both sides have accused the other of planning false flag operations in recent days as a pretext for further military escalation.

US intelligence sources claimed Russia is planning an operation involving fake drone attacks on the Donbas region, the term used for eastern Ukraine, or on Russian territory, while Russian state TV “claimed Kyiv is to launch a NATO-backed attack on pro-Russian separatists.”

European leaders are expected to visit both Moscow and Kyiv this week in a bid to calm the tensions. French President Emmanuel Macron will visit today and Tuesday, while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will travel to Kyiv on February 14.

What does seem to be true is that should Putin decide to invade Ukraine, the Russians would lose a number of soldiers, many nations have said they would stop all business with Russia, the United States would have serious sanctions on both the Russian government but also to a number of Putin’s oligarchs that he depends on for doing business in Russia.

This is not to mention that all of NATO has said they would react against Russia if they should invade Ukraine.  The NATO countries have already committed that they would continue to send military aid and equipment to the Ukraine, if Russia invades.

It all depends on how serious Putin continues his re-constitution of what was formally the Soviet Union. 

Putin has declared that is his goal.  This could determine just how serious he is in completing that goal.

Copyright G. Ater 2022