IS DONALD TRUMP’S POSITION IN THE PARTY HEADING SOUTH?

 

     …This old picture is more of what it's looking like today for the former president

 

If the polls are correct, Trump’s political position is not getting better

 

Perhaps, things are turning against the support for Donald Trump inside his own party.

One area that this shows is in the state of Michigan. 

Much of the Michigan party’s leadership is as disdainful of the Kalamazoo attorney, Matthew DePerno, who rose to prominence for his involvement in a widely debunked, Trump-embraced report.  A report that claimed Michigan’s electronic voting machines had rigged the 2020 election.  A subsequent Republican-led review by the state Senate described DePerno's work as “demonstrably false,” and based on “illogical conclusions.”  It referred those reporting the misleading claims for investigation by Attorney General, Dana Nessel (D), whom DePerno is trying to defeat in November.

DePerno stated: “We’re going 100 miles per hour off the socialist cliff. The state party wants to slow that down to go 50,” he told a crowd.  That was after describing private conversations in which state party leaders told him that they could not support him. “I want to turn this around and go exactly in the opposite direction.”

Similar clashes between Republican leaders and the candidates Trump has embraced have been playing out across the country with growing ferocity in recent months.  It’s a chaotic sign that Trump’s once unchallenged hold on the party and rank-and-file supporters is waning.

The former president’s power within the party and his continued focus on his personal grievances is increasingly questioned behind closed doors at Republican gatherings.  This is according to interviews with more than a dozen prominent Republicans in Washington and across the country, including some Trump advisers.  (Many spoke on the condition of anonymity because there remains significant fear of attracting Trump’s public wrath.)

This growing split is rooted in Republicans priorities: Trump has pursued a narrow effort to punish those who challenged his efforts to overturn the 2020 election result.  This is also while he's working to help put people in power who would be more sympathetic to him should he try the same thing again.  Other Republicans are more focused on finding palatable candidates most able to win this November.

As a result, Trump and those he endorsed, now find themselves fighting against some elected GOP leaders.  Their donors and party officers are intent on navigating the party slowly away from him and his false election claims.  Among voters, the polls have shown Republican-leaning independents turning away from Trump.

“It’s Trump versus the establishment again,”  a supporter explained. “There are a lot of people in the state party who… they don’t like Donald Trump. They have never liked him.”

In states such as Alabama, North Carolina and Alaska, Trump’s endorsed Senate candidates trail in fundraising or have been challenged in early polls.  An increasingly emboldened minority of Republican senators in Washington have bucked Trump’s direct commands.  First, by supporting a bipartisan infrastructure bill, and now by working on a bipartisan effort that would make it harder for a future president to overturn a federal election result.

Major Republican donors are becoming increasingly bold about suggesting Trump step aside to let someone else run for president in 2024.

Art Pope, a prominent North Carolina donor who opposed Trump in 2016, but said he came to support him over much of his presidency, said he constantly hears in donor circles that a new nominee is needed in 2024, even if there is general support of Trump. “My preference would be he not run again for a variety of reasons and let there be a good primary going forward,” Pope said.

“The longer he’s not president, the more he’s going to realize he can be a kingmaker, and can still be the lead in the Republican Party, even if he’s not president,” said Doug Deason.  Deason is a Texas donor with close ties to the Trump family who said he doesn’t expect Trump to run in 2024. “I just think he’s going to realize the current freedom that he has.”

The growing Trump dissent and this lesser support have undercut the former president’s efforts to portray himself as an “unassailable figure”.  It has also thrown suspense into the upcoming primary season.

Behind the scenes Trump has pushed back on aides, and even screamed at advisers, who have told him not to focus so much on re-litigating the last election.  This is according to people familiar with the matter.  One adviser recalled a recent phone call in which Trump started shouting that he won the election after a person started discussing some of the reasons he had lost, and how he could improve in 2024.

Trump has also complained to advisers about the new limits on his megaphone, as cable news networks shun the live coverage of his mass rallies, and as his social media accounts lie dormant.  This is per two of his advisers.

Online searches, social media interactions and television news mentions of Trump have all fallen sharply since he left office.

“People aren’t necessarily seeing his messaging as much. They just say he’s not on Twitter, they don’t really know what he’s doing,” said a senior Republican, reflecting private conversations with donors and operatives. “A lot of people now say to me: 'He did great things, he was a great president, but it’s time for something new.’”

“As opposed to being out there and to try to help the party, he is trying to help himself,” said one prominent Republican activist in Michigan. “He is completely focused on himself, and it is getting tiring.” (He’s always been that way.)

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) held a fundraiser for major donors at Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s estate in Florida.  But he falsely told guests the election was stolen and insulted Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).  In recent months, Trump has repeatedly attacked McConnell, former vice president Mike Pence and a range of other senators and lawmakers from his own party. (Anyone that isn’t loyal to him.)

Polls also have begun to show some weakening among Trump’s electoral coalition.  Trump’s favorability remains high among registered Republicans, at just under 80% in an Economist-YouGov tracking poll this month. But the same poll found 54% of Republicans saying they viewed him “very favorably,” compared with 68% right before the Jan. 6 insurrection last year and 74% in the month before the Jan. 6^th riot.

A Trump adviser who has frequently spoken with the former president said voters are drawing a distinction between him and his agenda. “They needed a break from him,” the adviser said. “They’re not sure they want him back in their lives, even if they loved his policies.”

The share of Republican and Republican-leaning voters who consider themselves more a supporter of Trump than the party, dropped to 36% in the NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll.  That is down 10 points from a year ago.  Today, only 44% wanted to see him run again for president.

“He is still God among Republicans, but independents don’t want him to run again. They have had enough,” said Frank Luntz, a major pollster who has previously advised Republican leaders. “They aren’t happy with Biden and they weren’t happy with Trump, and they want something new.”

But Trump has not been able to clear the field for his chosen candidates.  A major Republican donor, is supporting former governor Pat McCrory (R) in the race. “His endorsement is viewed as favorable, but it’s certainly not the decisive or determinative factor,” the major donor said.

The shift against Trump among independents has been especially sharp in Michigan, which is a pivotal swing state in presidential elections. 

A recent poll found Trump is viewed favorably by 31% of all voters.  That is the lowest level since 2016. That includes only 1 in 5 independent voters and only 38% of independent voters who say they lean Republican.

Requests for Trump to stay out of races in the state have been rejected because Trump has only cared about the “election fraud issue.”  “He’s doing endorsements for candidates he doesn’t know in races he shouldn’t care about,” another prominent Republican close to him said. “He’s going to end up losing some of these.”

Betsy DeVos, a major Michigan Republican donor, spoke publicly for the first time since she resigned her post as Trump’s Secretary of Education because of the role that his rhetoric played in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.  “I worry that principles have been overtaken by his personality today,” she told the assembled crowd.

Hopefully, this is a sign of where Trump’s support is headed for the future. 

Only time during the rest of 2022 will tell.

Copyright G. Ater 2022