TRUMP’S BEFORE ELECTION AND AFTER ELECTION POLLS

An increasing number of Americans just don’t believe Donald Trump’s promises.

 

I will get into the reasons for these latest poll results, but I wanted to first post this latest Gallup Poll that suggests that an increasing number of Americans don’t believe Trump’s spin about his presidency. It finds that only 45% of Americans think Trump keeps his promises, that is down from 62% in February, an astonishing slide of 17 points in less than 4 weeks.  Note that the drop has been 11 percentage points among Republicans and 9 points among conservatives. Meanwhile, among Americans overall, there has been a 7-point drop in those who think Trump can bring about the change this country needs.  That went from 53% to 46%, and a 6-point drop in those who think that Trump is honest and trustworthy, from 42% to 36%.

 

Gallup Poll:

 

As the first 100 day landmark in his presidency is approaching, it is amazing that the current White House personnel are not concerned about Trump’s awful lack of accomplishments.  They are more concerned that the media will offer Trump’s awful lack of accomplishments with highly unflattering accuracy.

 

We already know that Trump will be blaming the “fake or dishonest media” if they don’t acknowledge what Trump calls “a terrific start of his presidency” when compared to his “loser predecessors”. 

 

But the reality is that an increasing number of Americans just don’t believe Trump anymore.  That 45% of Americans that think Trump does keep his promises, that percentage seems to be shrinking as we speak, and as we get closer to that 100 days.

 

What is even more frightening to the White House is that based on the polls, (and don’t forget that Trump really does follow the polls),  it’s Trump’s leadership and his temperament that is being questioned.

 

The Washington Post is also making a big issue that Trump has achieved “no major legislative victories.” which cuts against his promise to execute “beautiful” deals while in Washington.

 

The avowed GOP pollster, Frank Luntz puts it this way, “Trump and the Republicans must post a record of accomplishment.  Because if they don’t, no rhetoric will fix it.”

 

But what do the mainstream Republicans in Congress do? 

 

Well, the Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) committed full-blown heresy when he warned: “We can’t blame this one on Barack Obama. We have to look in the mirror.”

 

The problem is that where most politicians will usually make their promises in a way that is done with a  more flexible way to achieve their promises.  But Trump, as a “non-politician”, he promised with what are called “black-letter promises”.

These are absolute promises that have "no way to not be accomplished".

 

It’s just the old way that people have always said that sneaky politicians make their statements that they can later work their way around what they had actually said, while black-letter promises are iron-clad promises.

 

As examples of this, Trump has now explicitly adopted policy goals that totally contradict those "black-letter promises" such as the GOP health-care plan that he championed that would roll back coverage for 24 million people and deeply cut Medicaid.  This was his program after he had vowed to provide “insurance for everybody”.  And as he also promised not to cut Medicaid.  Then he failed to unite the party (as he had promised) and the Republicans have yet to pass anything that can satisfy the basic promise to “repeal and replace” the ACA (Obamacare).

 

Other general promises are in the process of running aground, or basically just disintegrating.  This is mainly due to the current difficulty of translating the promises into some kind of detailed policy.   That’s because some have proven to be promises that were unrealistic and rooted in bad faith or Trump’s outright fantasies.

More examples:

 

>>> The travel ban is currently blocked in part because the true motives behind the measure lack any serious rationale for it.  This lack of rationale put it in legal jeopardy.

>>> The ambitious tax reform may now also founder due to the GOP divisions and arguments over the reform’s specifics.

 

>>> The promise of massive, trillion dollar infrastructure spending may now shrivel into a tax-break-and-cronyist-privatization scheme.

 

>>> The Trump bluster about China and trade deals and NATO and the Export-Import Bank have all since been retracted in the face of factual reality.

 

>>> The Trump vow for not touching US entitlements is currently threatened and cannot be squared with today’s ideological imperatives of the congressional Republicans, so it has quietly been put away in a drawer

 

>>> Trump is now moving away from the “economic populism” that was supposed to make him different from other Republicans.  He is increasingly embracing the more-orthodox GOP governing approach, but he still doubles-down on his nativism and dislike and fear of people from other countries.

 

Meanwhile, Trump’s overall approach is proving to have been based on those unrealistic promises. Many of the congressional Republicans do not have the guts to actually roll back health coverage for millions of Americans, while also deeply cutting taxes for the super-rich.   It is turning out that GOP fiscal priorities are deeply unpopular all over the country, and it appears that the coming budgetary and tax reform debates will prove to be mathematically unworkable.

 

It is interesting that many op-ed pundits have attributed Trump’s recent promise reversals as being a learning process.  Trump is now discovering that our challenges are much more complicated than he originally thought.  Some think he is evolving accordingly. But is he?

As Brian Beutler, the New Republic’s Senior Editor pointed out, “All this really demonstrates is that the original slate of false promises and assumptions is failing him.”

 

Different groups of voters may be basing their conclusion that Trump isn’t keeping his promises on different things.  But at bottom of it all, this shows with increasing reality that much of what Trump campaigned on was based on one or another sort of lie.

 

Here is what some of the other media outlets are saying:

 

Per a New York Times headline: “TRUMP VOTERS WONDER WHEN THEY’LL SEE ALL THE ‘WINNING”

 

The New York Times talked to voters in a Pennsylvania swing district that narrowly backed Trump and finds glimmers of dissatisfaction with Trump.  Many still trust him, but they wonder why his deal-making instincts do not seem to be translating into business. They admire his zeal, but are occasionally baffled by his tweets … Perhaps most forcefully, they question when they will begin to see more of that "word" they were promised, the outcome that voters were supposed to be “sick and tired of” by now, in Mr. Trump’s campaign estimation. The word was: "Winning."

 

Per CNN: “PENCE VOWS AN END TO ‘STRATEGIC PATIENCE”

 

“Tensions with North Korea are escalating”, said Vice President Pence explaining the administration’s new approach:

 

“We’re going to abandon the failed policy of strategic patience. But we’re going to redouble our efforts to bring diplomatic and economic pressure to bear on North Korea. Our hope is that we can resolve this issue peaceably.”  But in reality, Trump has played the situation militarily as cautiously as his predecessors did.

 

Bloomberg Politics reports: TRUMP ERA PRODUCES MASSIVE SURGE OF FUNDRAISING

 

The campaigns for the 2018 House races have hauled in a record $96.1 million in the first quarter of 2017:

 

That’s a 45% increase over the $66.2 million raised during the same period two years ago, the previous record. The maximum contribution amount to campaigns was the same during both periods. Republican incumbents and challengers raised $49.8 million, while Democrats pulled in $46.3 million.

 

For now, they’re at parity. One big question will be whether this surging energy produces more turnout on the Democratic side, as happened in last week’s Kansas special election.

 

Axios reports “CORPORATE AMERICA BREAKS WITH TRUMP ON CLIMATE”

 

Corporations seem to be increasingly at odds with Trump on his vow to pull us out of the Paris climate accord.  In a shift that is changing the debate, the biggest and most important US Energy companies are now dropping their resistance to a global climate deal. Broader corporate backing of global action on climate change is helping push President Trump away from his campaign promise to pull out of the climate deal, which was struck by nearly 200 nations in Paris two years ago to slow the growth of global greenhouse gas emissions.  We keep hearing that Trump is increasingly responsive to business leaders, which is supposed to prove he’s being more sensible. Let’s hope this applies in this area in particular

 

Award Winning Economist: Paul Krugman: TRUMP’S FALSE PROMISES ABOUT JOBS

 

Trump’s false promises about restoring coal and manufacturing jobs: “While we can’t stop job losses from happening, however, we can limit the human damage when they do happen. We can guarantee health care and adequate retirement income for all. We can provide aid to the newly unemployed. And we can act to keep the overall economy strong — which means doing things like investing in infrastructure and education, not cutting taxes on rich people and hoping the benefits trickle down.”

 

Trump is selling false promises about bringing jobs roaring back and trying to help Republicans cut the safety net, all this while cutting taxes on the rich, which would produce a doubly cruel outcome.

 

Hopefully, with all this occurring, we will start to see the US Congress and the Trump supporters getting their act together, but I’m not holding my breath.

 

Copyright G.Ater  2017