TODAY, EVERY AMERICAN IS PART OF A MINORITY

Today's US Minority Breakout

 

 

Here’s a peek at how this may affect our nation’s political future.

Have any of you seriously thought of how this country will have changed between now and the middle of this century?  And I don’t mean changed in the ways of new technology, transportation or interplanetary space travel.  I’m referring to the constantly changing make-up of this nation’s residents.

Well, three of the nation’s political think-tanks have gotten together and jointly published a report showing what the United States population is expected to look like by the year 2060. 

The three organizations are: the conservative American Enterprise Institute (AEI), the liberal Brookings Institution (BI) and the Center for American Progress (CAP).  The name of the report is: “States of Change: The Demographic Evolution of the American Electorate, 1974-2060”.

Here are some of the findings from the report:

·       People age 50 and older now represent 1/3^rd of the population, up from 1/4^th in 1980. By 2060, the share of 50 and over is forecast to exceed to 2/5’s of the US population. By contrast, those age 18 to 39 are then expected to be about 25% of the total.

·       In 1980, 80% of the U.S. population was white. Now, it’s 63%. By 2060, it’s projected to be only 44%. Hispanics have gone from 6% in 1980 to 17% and are projected to reach 29% by 2060. Asian Americans and “others” are expected to double from 8% now to 15% by 2060. The proportion of African Americans, now 12 to 13%, is estimated to stay about the same.

·       In 2012, slightly more than 25% of voters were minorities.  This is well below their population share of 37%. The reasons are very clear. Many immigrants today aren’t eligible to vote because they are not citizens.  Also, today’s voting turnout is low among eligible voters, but with time, all these gaps are expected to close.

·       Generational shifts are inevitable. The World War II generation is mostly gone (today it’s only 1% of the population). Baby Boomers, born from 1946 to 1964, are no longer the dominate ones. Today they’re 24% of the population.  The “millennials,” born from 1981 to 2000, is at 27%, they are now the dominate group.  They are slightly ahead of Generation X, born from 1965 to 1980, at 21%.

·       Perhaps the most surprising finding is that in 1974, 70% of eligible voters were married, 30% unmarried. Now, the split is 52% married, 48% not married.  This reflects fewer and later marriages, more divorces and more of the widowed elderly.

So, what does this all mean?  As a group, whites still have the most power, but their power is quickly waning. Hispanics’ power is on the rise, but up to now, it has been insufficient to pass the desired immigration legislation.

The main issue with all this diversity and with the lack of a truly dominate group, is that this is going to cause major difficulties for organizations to craft their future political campaigns. As examples, helping married couples with a new tax break could then offend an equally large pool of unmarried people. Baby boomers may defend their Social Security and Medicare benefits, but those benefits may then need to be partially paid for by taxes on struggling millennials.

Today’s Democrats and today’s GOP are both having problems in finding ways to bridge all the difference in today’s political groups, which for the first time, are now all different minority groups.

One interesting side comment was from Brookings Institution’s, Elaine Kamarck who wondered whether the children and grandchildren of today’s immigrants from the south will continue to identify themselves as Hispanic, “As people intermarry, will it matter that the United States is a majority-minority society?”

Currently, the nation is failing at being anything close to a unified country.  Instead of being a country that is pursuing our unified long-term interests, our politics is dominated by multiple groups avidly pursuing their multiple short-term self-interests. Political power is always derived from the nation’s people, but it must be tempered and focused in ways that allow for the nation’s future needs.

Looking forward, and based on this latest published report, we have a long way to go before this nation has, “gotten its act together”.

But then, anything can happen between today and the year, 2060.

Copyright G.Ater  2015