WHY THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE DEMOCRATS MAY LOSE THE CONGRESS IN 2022

 

                                 …Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey

 

Would Christie be a 2024 alternative Republican choice to Donald Trump?

 

Here are the overall results of a recent YouGov poll taken on behalf of The Economist Magazine:

• 75% of Republicans think the Democrats are to the left, versus 63% of those Democrats that were polled.  So, there wasn’t that much difference in their thinking

• 63% of Democrats think that the Republicans are to the far right versus 38% of what the Republicans that were polled, think about the Democrats…..that’s a big difference.

• As for those that call themselves “Independents”, 71% of them see the Democrats as being in touch with most American voters, but they also see 71% of the Republicans also being in touch with most Americans…?  So the independents see both parties being in touch with the American voters.

• The real issue is that, all those that were polled were also asked : Which political party is closer to you personally?

96% of the Democrats asked said they were closest to the Democratic Party, and 96% of the Republicans asked, said they were closest to the Republican Party 

So, the answer to that question is a stand-off in each party,  But the details show that many of the Independents were much more likely to say the GOP was being in touch with Americans’ concerns, more than were the Democrats.

This could be the key reason that the former New Jersey governor, Chris Christie, has found such a warm welcome on cable news programming over the past several days. Yes, Christie is promoting his new book which he says is an analysis of how the Republican Party might be overhauled after the former president, Donald Trump, reshaped the party in his image.  But the broader appeal appears that Christie is what cable news has found irresistible for the past six years, as he has been a vocal anti-Trump Republican.

Will Christie run for president in 2024?  Maybe, although at this time it seems unlikely that he would beat Trump in a primary election.  Perhaps Christie’s current tour of cable studios is just his smart marketing of his book. But it also might just his being the exception to the unwillingness of high-profile, possible Republican future candidates, to say anything negative about Donald Trump.

For years, pundits across the media has been concerned by the fact that Trump didn’t represent the Republican Party they had known.  Trump was not like the Republicans who circulated in Washington.  He was certainly, a difference that ended up playing to his benefit.  But it was still hard to understand how an electorate that kept sending D.C.-type Republicans to D.C., why they were promoting a non-D.C.-type Republican leader…?

Last week, when YouGov released their polling results, it illuminated one possible answer to that question.

Respondents were asked whether they viewed each party as sitting to the respondents’ left or to their right?  As you might expect, a plurality of Americans saw the Democratic Party as being to their left and the Republican Party being to their right. As you also might expect, a plurality of Democrats thought that their party was positioned right where they should be, although the details show that a fifth of the party did think that it was too conservative and 3 in 10 saw it as being too liberal… ?

Where things get really interesting is with the numbers for the Republicans.  Most Democrats thought that the GOP was much more to the right than they actually were.  But a plurality of the Republicans also thought their party was further to the right, than they actually were. About a quarter of the Republicans said the party matched their own ideology.  But about 4 in 10 said the party sat to their right, nearly the same response as was offered by the Independents.

Of course, there are margins of error at play here, but the difference is very significant: Republicans are more likely to say that the party is more right-wing than themselves, than they are to say that the party matches their ideology. They’re still Republicans, but maybe there is more space for a more-moderate, Christie-type candidate, than one might normally assume…?

Among independents, there weren’t significant differences in how the parties were viewed in the YouGov poll.  However, in the Washington Post-ABC News poll released this week, Independents did express a preference between parties.  When asked, the poll respondents to whether each party was in touch with the concerns of most Americans or not? Democrats mostly thought the Democratic Party was in touch; Republicans thought the GOP was in touch. Independents, always being independent, they obviously thought neither party was in touch.

However, there was an important difference in the details of the polling: Independents were significantly more likely to describe the GOP as being in touch with Americans’ concerns than were the Democrats.

It’s not a huge distinction, but it does reflect the one problem that the Democrats face.

That being, since President Biden took office, his approval rating has eroded.  This has occurred more among Independents than any other group. That’s how it works these days; members of one party love their party’s president and members of the other party loathe him.

But political success often means appealing to those middle-ground voters, and the Democrats would like to think that Independents see their party as offering better solutions.  Unfortunately, for the Independents, that’s not the case, and as we know, the Democrats are well known for their poor communication within their party.

On the plus side, there’s another set of data from the YouGov poll.  When asked which party better reflects their views, respondents overall were evenly split. Democrats and Republicans picked their own parties, predictably, but independents, also broke down the middle.

Independents may see Republicans as being more in touch with the country, but that’s not spurring them overwhelmingly to align with the Republican party. It’s worth noting that independents are often motivated by what's called, their reverse partisanship: That being that they may lean toward one party, but not because they prefer it, but because they vehemently oppose the alternative.

The picture is complicated, but most Independents don’t think either party is in touch with the concerns of the American public, but they do give a small advantage to Republicans on that score.

Republicans themselves are more likely to see their party as being more conservative than they actually are, than for them to say that the party aligns neatly with their own ideology.

And you know who would be interesting to talk to about this? That being the former New Jersey governor who is pitching a less-extreme Republican Party.

Stick around for when we’ll hear from Chris Christie on this very subject.  It should be very interesting.

Copyright G. Ater 2021