THE GOP IS LATE WITH THEIR POLITICAL ADS?

… Katie Arrington, who faces Joe Cunningham in a South Carolina’s 1^st district

With only a week to go, the NRCC finally decided to invest in ads for some key districts.

Tuesday this week, the Republicans finally realized that perhaps they should invest in some vulnerable candidates in congressional districts that President Trump won in 2016, as the Democrats have charged deeper into conservative strongholds in their bid to win the House.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) plans to launch an ad campaign in a South Carolina district that Trump carried by 13 points, while the lame-duck House Speaker, Paul Ryan (R-WI) is expected to campaign for a Kentucky incumbent in a district that went to Trump by 15 points.

This last-minute action by the GOP is a move to help these candidates and to hopefully keep from embarrassing the party with major loses in districts where Trump won big in 2016.

Republican groups are tossing political lifelines to House candidates in Georgia, Florida, Virginia and Washington state.  In these districts, Trump was victorious by double-digits.

But even the Republicans have realized that they are weighed down by an unpopular president, and their actions reflect the challenging map that has forced GOP leaders to treat their candidates as needing emergency support ahead of the Nov. 6 vote.  According to the polls and the political analysts, the Democrats are favored to win the House majority. They only need a net gain of 23 seats, and they could end up with 40+ seats.

The Republicans believe the contested confirmation of Supreme Court Justice, Brett M. Kavanaugh, has increased their concern about the Dem’s energized voters in conservative districts that protested Judge Kavanaugh.  That issue has fueled the Democrat’s attack against Trump for casting Democrats as an “angry mob”.

On top of this, some Republican leaders are worried that Trump and his allies face criticism in the wake of the deadly massacre Saturday at a Pittsburgh synagogue.  That issue plus the mailed bombs sent to prominent Democrats and liberal donors, Tom Steyer and George Soros, and of course, CNN.  Critics have accused Trump and some backers of fostering an environment for far-right extremism.

Within these last-minute moves, Republicans are launching a major ad campaign to boost Katie Arrington, who faces Joe Cunningham in a South Carolina’s 1^st district.  Arrington, with President Trump’s support, ousted the former governor and popular Rep., Mark Sanford in the GOP primary earlier this year.  But Republican nominee has had trouble putting away her Democratic opponent.

Arrington, is defined by her support for Trump and the incumbent Sanford’s criticism of the president.  But she has lost some GOP support to Cunningham, whose slogan is “Lowcountry over party” and who casts himself as a moderate.

Last week, a Republican mayor who endorsed Cunningham released audio of a conversation with Arrington in which she warned him that he’d taken his city “off a seat at the table” with this decision.  She told the Charleston Post and the Courier papers, that she was talking about offshore drilling; he said it sounded like a much broader political threat.

In an ad that started Monday, Arrington uses footage of the migrant caravan to falsely warn against a Democratic Congress favoring “open borders” and “undermining law enforcement.” In his own ad, Cunningham says that “politics shouldn’t be seen as good or evil, & tearing one another down.”

This past week of horrible events probably reminds everybody that the political rhetoric is overheated on both sides. So, to that degree, “It takes a little steam out of the Republicans’ argument against the Dems,” said Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK).

As for the House map, Cole said there is no question that “if you’re a Democrat, you prefer a battlefield that’s expanding at the end.” He added, “To some degree, they have that.”

Republicans today hold 25 districts that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, giving Democrats ample space to capitalize on their anger at Trump and his party, as they pursue keeping the majority. The Democrats have also pressed Republicans on even redder turf.

Speaker Ryan will be in Kentucky this week to campaign for Rep. Garland “Andy” Barr, whose 6th District stretches from Lexington into more rural areas. The former fighter pilot, Amy McGrath, has given Democrats hope of flipping this seat, despite the district’s natural conservative history.

In Wisconsin, two presidents, one former, one current, offered two different visions of America

President Trump and former President Obama both traveled to Wisconsin to rally their supporters ahead of the midterm elections. 

Democrats argue that their focus on health care, and drawing attention to how Republicans have tried to shred the Affordable Care Act and its protections for people with preexisting medical conditions, will prove more effective than the GOP’s immigration-based attacks.

“They’re working on fringe issues,” said Rep. Mark Pocan (D-WI), a member of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) leadership. “You know, there is no great threat of a caravan of transgender, Nancy Pelosi supporters that people are afraid of.  And yet, you know, those are kind of the top issues they do, right? The fear issues.”

Republicans continue to point to Democratic retreats in key districts in Nebraska and Minnesota, and elsewhere as signs that a massive blue wave is unlikely.  But still, the GOP is very nervous and they are watching those seats in areas that once looked safe, but today might flip.

In Virginia’s 5th District, the main House GOP super PAC signed up for TV ads for the very first time, just last week. The Congressional Leadership Fund ad is to help the distillery owner Denver Riggleman (R) against journalist Leslie Cockburn (D) in a sprawling district that includes rural areas and the college town of Charlottesville. Trump won there by 11 points.

In Virginia’s 7th District, which Trump also carried, the new poll released Monday showed more possible trouble. The survey from the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University showed 46% of likely voters picking Democrat Abigail Spanberger and 45% choosing Republican Rep. Dave Brat.

The NRCC also hit the airwaves for the first-time last week in Georgia’s 6th District in the Atlanta suburbs.  There, Democrat Lucy McBath has received help from well-funded gun control groups. Trump narrowly won this district.

“We’re not trying to cover the spread,” said NRCC communications director Matt Gorman. “We’re looking at victories.” He added: “The name of the game is volatility. And we’ve seen it on both sides.”

Democrats have raised huge sums of money, prompting Republicans to warn about a “green wave” of Democratic dollars, even in districts where the GOP has established a strong presence.

Lucy McBath started the final weeks of the campaign with $565,000 in her account.  Her Republican opponent, Rep. Karen Handel, had $402,000 left to spend.

The NRCC hit the airwaves for the just  last week in Washington’s 3rd District in the southwest corner of the state. Trump won there by seven points. Democrat Carolyn Long capitalized on a strong primary vote by out raising Republican Rep. Jaime Beutler by nearly $1 million.

Even in Florida’s 18th District, where Trump won by nine points and Rep. Brian Mast out raised his Democratic challenger, former diplomat Lauren Baer, Republicans are not taking any chances. The NRCC went up with an expensive ad that covers the whole district from Palm Beach County, all the way north.

Copyright G. Ater  2018