PUTTING THE GOP AND THE DEMS INTO PERSPECTIVE

…This is what the Dems are hoping for in November

The following is to explain how a “Blue Wave” might occur in November.

I have been asked by some of those that follow my blog to explain how I believe that the Democrats are planning to take back the running of the two houses in Washington.

My first comment to that question is that the goal has to go much further than controlling the two political houses located in Washington DC.

First, it must be understood that the GOP has done their homework over the past two decades and they have grown up to control the following:

·       *** The Republicans have 33 out of 50 governorship's.

·       ***The Republicans control 32 of 50 state legislations.

·       ***The Republicans control the House, 248 GOP members to 192 Dems.

·       ***The Republicans control the Senate 54 to 44 Dems, and 2 Independents that caucus with the Dems.

·       ***The White House is in total control by an unqualified, Republican president.

·       ***And finally, the  US Supreme Court is controlled by 5 conservatives to 4 liberals.

·       And this does not deal with the fact that the Republican controlled Senate has been confirming life-time conservative federal judges at a rate that hasn’t been seen since the 1890’s.

Therefore, the Democrats have their work cut out for them, from the basic level of the state legislatures to the most powerful senior executive in the free world.

Now today, we all keep hearing about a possible “Blue Wave” of Democrats that some say will overtake the mid-term elections this November.

But it must be understood that yes, there will obviously be some changes after the numbers are all in on November 7, 2018.  But with the economy buzzing along as it is today, and as the unemployment being at an all-time low, since most people vote with their pocketbooks, the “Blue Wave” may not become as life-changing as many liberals would like to see.

But with all that in mind, here’s what I think will be the Democrats approach to going after the “Brass Ring” for taking on a possible opportunity for the running of the US government.

·       There will be some Democrat's that use the current Russian investigation and the Stormy Daniels porn-star issue, but it will be a minor part of their approach.

·       Trump is only seriously popular within his political base, but main-stream Republicans do also feel he’s doing "policy wise", what they want done.  However, over-all within the US, Trump’s unpopularity remains historically in the toilet.  This, and Trump’s many scandals, are in fact helping Democrats, but not in a way that is immediately apparent.

·       For the past 66 days, Trump’s approval rating has been somewhere between 40.0% and 42.1%, according to poll-trackers.  It’s been toward the higher end of that range recently, but that still isn’t much of a range.  Over the whole course of his presidency, the range of Trump’s approval ratings has been remarkably low and narrow.

·       Trump’s numbers are rising slightly, but they are only doing so inside that very narrow range that still remains abysmally low. And don’t forget there's the polling that shows strong disapproval of Trump, and that is running much higher than his strong approval.  This could impact the voter engagement.

·       The first Dem goal is to win more state and House national seats.  The Dems will not focus on Trump’s scandals, but more on the negative aspects of the tax cuts for the wealthy, while they burdened the middle-class, and the GOP’s continuing drive to roll back health care coverage, of which these together amount to a deeply unpopular overall set of GOP priorities.

·       In the district-by-district battles to retake the House, there will be many Democrats focusing less on condemning Trump’s character, than on discrediting the over-all Republican agenda. Central to that mission is arguing again that the GOP has only benefited the wealthy, and hurt the middle class and the poor, with these being the twin GOP legislative priorities of the past 17 months.

·       The democrats will capitalize on Trump’s unpopularity by what they saw in the last year of special elections, in Virginia, in Alabama, in Pennsylvania’s 18th District, and in dozens of state legislative races.  Trump’s unpopularity is driving Democratic turnout and Democratic volunteering, and is turning better-educated, suburban swing voters and independents against the GOP.   Alienation from Trump has led such voters to give Democrats more of a hearing. The intensity of this outpouring against Trump is undoubtedly driven in part by Trump’s scandals and his response to them, and crucially, it is happening even as Democratic candidates are not particularly focused on Trump in their own campaigns.

·       Trump is doing part of the work directly for Democrats without needing their help.  This allows them to focus on things such as improving health care or fortifying social insurance or even on hyper-local issues as many state legislative candidates have done.  If Democrats are going to run against Trump, it’s going to be subtle.  They will try to project calm, stability, decency and respect for tolerance and the rule of law, drawing an implicit contrast with Trump.  They will challenge their Republican competitors when they dabble in Trumpist xenophobia and veiled racism, as opposed to making it overtly all about the president.

·       These campaigns are unfolding inside the Beltway and on Twitter over how much Trump’s scandals will matter in the midterms.  Indeed, to find clear evidence of what Democrats are actually doing, look no further than how Republicans are responding to it. Savvy Democrats think that Republicans are cycling out of their tax-cut messaging, and that Trump is doubling down on his attacks on special counsel Robert Mueller.

·       Per Democratic strategist Simon Rosenber: “Trump is leaning hard into Mueller with his brand of white nationalism, which is born of the growing GOP realization that Democrats are running and winning on health care and the cleaning up of Washington DC, these are the things that really matter to American voters today.

None of this is to say the Democrats will necessarily win the House and/or the Senate, though right now the former looks very plausible and the latter looks at least possible. But let’s at least this help you understand what the Democrats are actually doing to possibly make it happen.

It’s going to be a very interesting mid-term campaign from now until November.

Copyright G.Ater  2018