HAMBURG’S G-20: TWO REAL PRO'S VS TWO REAL NOVICES

…G-20 pic usually has the US leader in the center.  Today, Trump is on the outside of the group photo.

 

Things between US Republican President & Europe will probably get much worse before they get better.

 

Let’s look at what happened and what proof we have of what went on during the G-20 meeting between President Trump and Russia’s President Putin.

 

First, who was, and wasn’t in attendance at the meeting?

 

For the United States, there were the novice President Trump and the novice Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, and a single translator.  No, there was not the National Security Advisor, H.R. McMaster which would normally be part of these kinds of meetings.  There were also no “note takers” that are usually there to confirm exactly what was said and agreed to.

For Russia there was the highly experienced Russian President Putin, who has dealt with 3 US presidents, and there was his highly skilled Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who has held that position since 2002, plus their trusted translator.  (And translators never share their notes.)

 

These lineups show that the US side was highly outgunned in terms of diplomatic experience, since Putin has been operating at top global tables since first becoming president in 2000 and Lavrov is considered by his peers to be one of the most wily and capable diplomats in the world. (Trump voters wanted outsiders….and that’s exactly what they got!)

By contrast, Trump and Tillerson, despite their long histories of negotiating in a corporate atmosphere, are truly major novices in high-powered diplomatic politics. And where was the National Security Council Russia Specialist, Fiona Hill?  She has been a serious Putin critic long before entering the Trump administration.  Her input would have been very valuable for such an important first meeting.

 

Now Rex Tillerson has had long experience of negotiating with Russia from his previous role leading ExxonMobil. But based on his first encounter with Putin as US Secretary of State, it did not go very well.  He had emerged from that meeting in Moscow in April saying there was a "low level of trust" between the two countries.  That should have been an inkling of how the Russians would be expected to “play” a novice team such as Trump and Tillerson, with no one else with diplomatic experience in the room.

 

As expected, when the read-out of the meeting was read, which was done for the US by Tillerson, and by Lavrov for the Russians, as expected neither party totally agreed on what was said and agreed.

 

According to Tillerson, Trump had multiple times brought up the interference in the US elections and other European elections and he told Putin it had to stop.  But as before, Putin denied their involvement in the US elections.  Tillerson said that it was then decided that both nations would set up a group to work together that would deal with cyber attacks.  Many politician has scoffed at that concept, and one of them has said the agreement to that concept was like “Wiley Coyote negotiating to get ACME manufacturing to stop making dangerous equipment.”

Of course, nothing could go wrong with an arrangement between the US & Russia for dealing with cyber-attacks…..RIGHT!!!

 

After their shaking hands with Putin and Lavrov, Trump and Tillerson should have stopped to count their fingers.

 

The growing international isolation of the United States under President Trump at the G-20 meeting was starkly apparent as the leaders of major world economies mounted a nearly united front against the US and Washington on issues ranging from climate to free trade.

 

At the gathering of the Group of 20 world economic powers it is normally a venue for very drab displays of international community.  But this time, there were tough clashes with the United States and even serious talk of a future transatlantic trade war between the US & Europe.

 

The tensions were the expected measure of Trump’s sharp break with previous US policies. They were also a significant sign of Washington’s diminished leadership clout.  The leaders of the other nations who gathered in Hamburg mulled over whether to fix their signatures to statements that would exclude President Trump.

 

Two European officials who declined to be identified said they were leaning toward staging a united front against Trump and Washington in general.

 

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who faced the difficult host job of bridging these differences, made little attempt to paper over the disagreements after the first day of meetings.

 

“The discussions are very difficult. I don’t want to talk around that,” Merkel said. 

 

She described the view of most participants that “we need free but also fair trade,” a rejection of Trump’s skepticism about the value of sweeping free-trade agreements. And she predicted that the lower-level officials charged with negotiating a final statement deep into the night “had a lot of work ahead of them.”

 

The summit was also the venue for that first face-to-face meeting between Trump and the Russian President Putin.  The two leaders sat for a 2-hour-and-16-minute meeting, which started out with warm jokes.  However, it ended with a disagreement about whether Trump had, or had not accepted Putin’s denial that his country had interfered in the US election.   

 

Putin and Lavrov actually asked for “proof from the US that Russia had hacked into the US elections”, as if the US intelligence agencies would offer up how they learned that Russia had done the hacking.

Some of the clearest and largest divides with the other attendees had to do with climate change.  That was of course after Trump’s former decision to pull the United States from the Paris climate accord. There were sharp warnings about the future US steel policy as Trump continues to mull over restrictions on steel imports.

 

In one of the most consequential decisions of Trump’s young administration, he could easily impose restrictions on steel imports, a move that could affect trade with more than a dozen major countries.

 

“We will respond with countermeasures if need be, hoping that this is not actually necessary,” European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told reporters, adding figuratively: “But we are prepared to take up arms if need be.”

 

Any US restriction on steel imports would have a relatively minor effect on China, but would hit other countries much harder.

 

The comments made for a remarkable display of dis-harmony as the gathering got underway. They also were a reflection of how European officials not only do not fear Trump, but in fact, they see many gains by opposing him.

 

Trump is deeply unpopular in Europe, and their politicians get local political boosts when they emphasize their differences with him.

Merkel was also seen rolling her eyes at comments made by Putin (Merkel speaks fluent Russian, German and English.)

 

Another E.U. leader, European Council President Donald Tusk, said he was extremely cautious about the changed American outlook and the latest strain between Washington and Europe.  This was anything but a good get-together between the new Trump administration and the European Community.

 

And things will probably get much worse before they can get better, as long as Trump is the US president.

 

Copyright G.Ater  2017