FEW “HO-HO-HO’s” EXPECTED FOR THIS YEAR’S CHRISTMAS IN WASHINGTON

 

...Paul Ryan & Mitch McConnell, the heads of the House & Senate aren’t doing much these days.

 

In this US Congress, the partisan divide is as wide as it’s ever been.

 

In the past for our national lawmakers, the month of August was a vacation month.  It was a time to relax before coming back in September to deal with the fiscal battles between the parties for funding the government and for raising the nation’s debt limit.

 

But this year, because the US Congress hasn’t been able to get  much of anything done, it will only have 12 legislative days in September to raise the federal borrowing limit for avoiding default on all of our owed debts.  And in that same period, they will need to approve our 2017 spending to avoid shutting down the US government….again.

 

In this particular congress, the partisan divide is as wide as it’s ever been, and these high-stakes deadlines are particularly bad because the GOP lawmakers are battered, bruised and angry.  This is due to the dramatic failure of their GOP’s most recent attempt to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare).  (After seven years, Trump had promised a better plan that would cost less, but their cupboard of health care plans was bare.)

 

This was a particularly difficult defeat because it lost by only one vote, and that one vote was cast by the GOP’s own key Republican Senator, John McCain (AZ), which was that final vote that killed what was called the "skinny health care repeal" bill.

 

As usual for the Republicans, they have no vison for a long-term approach to the nation’s requirements.  (And that's for health care, infrastructure, North Korea, tax reform and job creation.)  Instead, some congressional Republicans openly admitted that there is a strong possibility that the GOP will quickly abandon a major spending bill in favor of a short-term funding.  This will only keep the government open, probably through the end of the year.  This is one of the likely solutions that would continue current spending levels through the middle of December, which could give lawmakers more time to negotiate a broader deal.

 

But this would only be a short-term solution to the reality that the Republicans themselves are deeply split over spending priorities, and neither group has enough votes to pass any kind of major spending bill on their own.

 

Republican leaders know there are about a dozen conservatives who simply won’t vote for most spending bills. Those same 12 or more far-right members also don’t want to vote to increase the debt limit without corresponding spending cuts. That means Republicans will probably have to turn to the Democrats to both raise the borrowing limit and keep the government funded.

 

Democratic leaders would be happy to extend current spending levels and increase the debt limit. The problem is always with the Republicans, for whom accepting another spending measure would be a dramatic reversal as GOP leaders have pledged to cut spending and restore order to the budget process.

 

But by taking this position, the GOP once again will be guilty of causing more problems by upsetting the budget process.

 

As usual, the GOP continues to show how incapable they are when they take over any area of the government.  They have never been very good at governing, and especially at ever coming to a reasonable political compromise.

 

Fortunately, some hard-line conservatives have signaled that they are resigned to the reality of a short-term spending bill, no matter how distasteful it is to them. House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), one of the usual Republicans against any spending, he told reporters before the recess that September is going to be a difficult month.  But he doesn’t expect there will be enough time to complete the regular process of passing the appropriate long-term funding bills.  “All the fiscal issues and deadlines are going to make it extremely difficult to get everything done on a piece-by-piece basis,” Meadows said. “We’re almost anticipating a bigger bill with a whole bunch of things put together that would maybe bring a whole lot of Democrats on board and pass it with less than a majority of the majority.”

 

Meadows wasn’t happy about that idea, but he also didn’t challenge the notion that conservatives may be fighting a lonely and losing battle over spending cuts next month. Approving a short-term bill could be the quickest solution for GOP leaders, but it carries with it both risks and rewards for Republicans still reeling from their failure on health care.

 

There are three reasons the Republicans might want to force the bigger spending fight.  They are:

 

1: They can delay the pain of a public debate over cutting funding for popular programs. Even deeply passionate fiscal hawks got queasy when President Trump proposed cutting funding for programs like arts, education, student loans and Meals on Wheels.

2: They won't have to grapple with the fight over Trump's border wall. Some key Senate Republicans have openly rejected the idea of spending money on the wall without spending cuts to offset it. Senators: Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), John McCain (Ariz) and Bob Corker (Tenn.) all told CNN back in February they weren’t on board with the wall plan.

 

3: They can focus on a tax overhaul. Republican leaders announced last month they plan to start hearings on a tax bill in September with the hope of holding a House vote in October and a Senate one in November. That timeline is ambitious, but GOP lawmakers see a tax code rewrite as an opportunity to eke out a sizable victory, even if it means that they have to settle for a simple tax cut rather than a sweeping overhaul like some had imagined.

A tax overhaul is a signature pledge for House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-WI), and he is eager to move on to that project. So eager in fact that his Twitter feed has included daily reminders of his promise:

 

Here are three reasons a short-term spending measure might be a nightmare for the GOP:

 

1: Trump wants his border wall funded. The White House was willing to accept the last spending bill without wall funding based on the assumption that GOP leaders would provide it in the next round of spending bills. Politico reported earlier that the White House is already floating a plan to increase domestic spending in exchange for money to begin construction of a “double fence.”

 

2: North Korea is creating even more pressure for military spending. Most defense hawks hate short-term spending bills because it's impossible for the military to plan and prepare. Earlier this year, McCain was among those who pledged not to support another stopgap bill, saying that doing so “destroys the ability of the military to defend this nation.”

 

3: Nothing’s going to change between now and December. Republicans will also still be wary of the wall. A bloc of House conservatives will still be unwilling to vote for any kind of spending bill, and barring an unforeseen surprise, the 52 Senate Republicans will still need at least eight Democrats to keep the government funded.

 

But with Trump in the White House, and with this Republican-run Congress, you might still be seeing another government shutdown fight sitting under the national Capitol’s Christmas tree of 2017.

 

 

Watch this space.......

 

Copyright G.Ater  2017