WILL TRUMP RUN IN 2024? HE’S GETTING CLOSE

 

                                 …The former president at one of his many rallies.

 

His advisers have not convinced him to not run in 2024

 

Former president Donald Trump’s advisers have spent much of this year talking him out of announcing a third White House bid before the midterms, arguing that it could get drowned out by the ongoing campaigns. They feel this would invite the Democrats to focus the races on him and also complicate compliance with campaign finance rules.

So Trump has stopped short of a formal announcement, but in many ways, he is already acting like a 2024 candidate.

He is scheduled to hold a rally this Thursday in Iowa, home to the first-in-the-nation caucus that makes it a magnet for presidential hopefuls, but not among the top battlegrounds in this year’s midterms. Trump is holding events in coming days in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, critical states in the midterm elections for any Republican presidential contender.

Trump also has repeatedly winked at his supporters in public remarks, strongly hinting that his own mind was made up. “Under these ridiculous rules and regulations you’re not allowed to talk about it,” he said at a rally last month in Michigan. “We’ll be making a decision very soon,” he added in Arizona. “I think everyone’s going to be happy, I really do.

“Very soon” could come within days of Election Day on Nov. 8, with Trump hoping to take credit for what’s expected to be a strong Republican midterm showing.  Advisers, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal plans, said announcing soon would pressure Republicans to line up behind Trump before potential rivals get into the race. Trump expects to face Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former vice president Mike Pence and former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, advisers said.

Some advisers also cited the importance of declaring Trump’s candidacy before a potential indictment from the Justice Department. Investigators have been closing in on Trump and his inner circle in separate probes into the Jan. 6,2021 attack on the Capitol and the mishandling of classified documents recovered from his private Mar-a-Lago Club and residence in Florida. Some advisers said announcing Trump’s candidacy before any potential charges would help him by making the prosecution look more political.

Trump has been tracking what donors meet with other candidates, advisers say, and has hosted state officials and Republican National Committee (RNC) members at Mar-a-Lago ahead of an announcement.

The Iowa rally was scheduled to help Sen. Charles Grassley (R), who some polls show is in a tight race, after an earlier event in the state did not come together.  This is according to a person involved in the planning. The state also has a competitive race for attorney general, and the Republican candidate is slated to speak.

The rally location, in Sioux City, isn’t in a competitive congressional district. The state’s GOP chair, Jeff Kaufmann, said he advocated for bringing Trump there to help turn out the vote for statewide races. “When you have no contested election, there is a tendency for voter enthusiasm to decline,” Kaufmann said. “We need something in this 4th District to put things into overdrive.”

Still, Trump clearly has his own interests in Iowa, where he narrowly lost the 2016 caucus to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.). A recent Des Moines Register poll found that most Iowans view Trump unfavorably, a definite turn from last fall. Trump won the state by eight points in 2020. Even some of Trump’s supporters have started admitting to reservations about voting for him a third time.

“A lot of people who attend his rally want to thank him for what he did, but that doesn’t mean everybody at the rally believes he should run for president again,” said Bob Vander Plaats, head of the Family Leader, an Iowa-based social conservative group. “A lot of people are going to think, ‘We need somebody new, somebody fresh, in 2024 to make sure we win.’ ”

Trump is divisive, viewed favorable by only 42% of Americans, but 81% of Republicans.  This is according to a recent New York Times-Siena national poll. Multiple polls have shown that a majority of Americans believe he should be prosecuted for his role in encouraging his supporters to march to the Capitol on Jan. 6, leading to a riot that disrupted the formal certification of the election results.

Trump has spent the almost two years since leaving office cementing his grip on the party. His endorsements proved decisive in many primaries, and he has held rallies to promote the “Trump ticket,” rather than using the party’s name. Eight of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump for inciting the insurrection have since retired or lost their primaries, and a ninth, Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), is in a close race for reelection. Candidates emphasizing Trump’s false claims about fraud in the 2020 election are now within striking distance of winning the power to oversee or certify future elections, including in Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin, states that were crucial to Biden’s electoral college victory.

“Send Biden a message. Defeat Catherine Cortez Masto,” the voice-over in the Nevada spot says, citing the Democratic Senate incumbent.

“Joe Biden and John Fetterman aren’t up to these challenges,” an ad in Pennsylvania says, referring to the Democratic Senate candidate there.

Two people involved in the ads said the attacks on Biden were supported by the PAC’s research because the president is unpopular in those states. The super PAC is being advised by Chris LaCivita, a veteran Republican ad maker who is also being considered for a senior campaign role.  This is according to people familiar with the matter.

Trump has also begun dunking on his potential opponents in the Republican primary. He criticized DeSantis for endorsing Colorado Senate candidate Joe O’Dea after Trump lashed out at O’Dea for distancing himself from Trump.  DeSantis, who is running for reelection, will not appear at Trump’s rally in Miami on Sunday, instead holding his own competing event.

The Florida rally arose from a conversation between Trump and Sen. Marco Rubio (R), who is also on the ballot, according to people familiar with the planning. Trump is also planning homestretch rallies in Pennsylvania on Saturday and Ohio on Monday.

Trump’s PAC now routinely blasts out state poll results showing Trump leading likely primary rivals and beating Biden in a hypothetical 2024 rematch.

“We’re leading by numbers that nobody’s ever seen before, that includes Republicans,” Trump said at last month’s Arizona rally. “We got some Republicans that say, ‘Oh, we want to run.’ Let them run. Who the hell cares? We’re leading by so much.”

Copyright G. Ater 2022