WHY UKRAINE’S MEMBERSHIP IN NATO WILL TAKE MUCH MORE TIME

 

                             …British Tanks from NATO being delivered to Ukraine’s military

 

Also, why NATO is so important to Europe & the Ukraine

In order to understand NATO and the war between Ukraine and Russia, you need to know and understand the following three things.

• What and why is there NATO?
• Ukraine’s position with NATO.
• Why can’t Ukraine easily join NATO?

First you need to understand NATO’s history and their purpose.

The United States was a driving force behind the formation of NATO back in 1949. The initial alliance was made up of just 12, mostly democratic countries, including Britain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Canada and the United States.  It was mainly designed to bolster security in Western Europe among countries worried about then Soviet advances.

It rested on the idea of collective defense, meaning that an attack on one member nation was an attack against all NATO’s members. When West Germany joined the alliance in 1955, it prompted the Soviet Union and seven of its satellite nations to establish the Warsaw Pact, their mutual defense organization against NATO.

But then the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 and the Warsaw Pact dissolved along with it.

Since then, NATO has grown to include 30 countries, among them ex-Soviet republics such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as former Soviet satellite states: Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic.

NATO does not have its own armed forces but instead, maintains an integrated military command structure from all member states. NATO’s top general, or “supreme allied commander,”  is traditionally an American, while the role of secretary general is normally fulfilled by a senior European political figure.

The current secretary general is a former Norwegian prime minister, Jens Stoltenberg.

Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, NATO had spent years engaged in peacekeeping, strong military training and advising missions in places such as Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kosovo and Iraq. Then in 2014, after Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine, NATO began conducting patrols over the Baltic states.

Now, Russia’s full-blown invasion of Ukraine has reinvigorated the NATO alliance and galvanized support among member nations for a more robust troop presence on the European continent.

At a recent, extraordinary meeting of NATO defense ministers, Jens Stollenberg said they discussed a new plan to expand the alliance’s forces. Member countries are considering the long-term deployment of additional troops, warships and planes to NATO’s eastern flank, Jens said, citing what he called the “new security reality” of a now, more aggressive Russia.

What is Ukraine’s position today with NATO?

In 2008, NATO announced that Ukraine and Georgia would become members, once they reached the alliance’s standards for governance and transparency, among other measures. Ukraine enacted a law in 2017 making NATO membership a priority, but because of the Russian invasion, the Ukraine has not progressed in its bid for membership.

Some have cited Ukraine’s internal corruption and still-shaky transition to democracy as reasons for the delay.  But NATO members have also been afraid of the Russian reaction to Ukraine joining NATO..

Nonetheless, NATO sees helping to defend Ukraine against Russian aggression as part of its mandate. When Russia annexed Crimea and invaded eastern Ukraine in 2014, NATO responded by suspending cooperation with Russia and boosting the Ukraine capitol’s (Kyiv’s) defensive capabilities: NATO then held military trainings, deployed troops around Eastern Europe, funded cyberwarfare preparedness and supported reforms of the Ukrainian armed forces, among other programs.

Ukraine’s push for membership in NATO is one of the reasons Russia has used to justify its invasion. And Russian President, Vladimir Putin, has demanded a firm promise that Ukraine will never join NATO.

Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the issue of Ukraine’s potential NATO membership has risen in urgency.  As of 2020, Ukraine has officially been one of six NATO “Enhanced Opportunities Partners,” which gives it a “tailor-made” relationship with NATO as a non-member.

Since becoming president in 2019, Ukraine’s President Zelensky has urged NATO members to accelerate Ukraine’s membership into the military alliance. In 2021, he said “Every day we prove that we are ready to be in the alliance more than most of the countries of the European Union.”

After the Russian invasion began, Zelensky said, he asked 27 European leaders whether Ukraine would join NATO. “I have asked directly. Everyone is afraid; no one answers,” Zelensky said.

As the Russian invasion has progressed, Zelensky has agreed and stressed that NATO membership is not an immediate option for Ukraine.

“I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago after we understood that … NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine,” Zelensky said in an interview that aired this March 7 on ABC News.

“It is clear that Ukraine is not a member of NATO; we understand this. … For years we heard about the apparently open door, but have already also heard that we will not enter there, and these are truths and must be acknowledged,” Zelensky said during a speech before the leaders of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF).

Why is it difficult for Ukraine to join NATO?

NATO enlargement is a contentious issue. Since the 1990s, analysts have been concerned about its impact on NATO cohesion and solidarity, as well as relations with other nations, notably Russia.  (This is according to the NATO website.)

A major reason Ukraine struggled in its bid to join NATO was Kyiv’s active, unresolved border dispute with Moscow. Since 2014, Russia has backed separatists controlling the eastern Ukraine regions of Luhansk and Donetsk. (This border dispute put into question NATO’s role should Ukraine become a member nation.)

Putin also considers NATO expansion to be a “red line” for Russia, and he has accused the military alliance of trying to “encircle” Russia, which is false.  Given this, Ukraine’s membership could provoke a Russian retaliation, a risk that many NATO member states are not willing to take.

The process of joining NATO itself is complex, with a high entry bar.  Still, NATO has an “open door policy,” with membership open to any “European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area,” per the alliance’s treaty. Any decision on enlargement must be made “by unanimous agreement.” Invitations are made “on the basis of consensus among all Allies,” and “no third country (like Russia) has a say in such deliberations.”

Aspiring members can join NATO’s advice and assistance program, the Membership Action Plan, in which progress on preparations is reported and assessed. Zelensky in July 2021 said Ukraine had done everything necessary to earn a NATO membership action plan. Only Bosnia is currently participating.

The membership process begins with accession talks with a NATO team, to discuss aspirations, obligations and contribution to NATO’s budget.  Nations then send NATO a letter of intent with a timetable for the completion of reforms. Criteria to join include rule of law standards such as “a functioning democratic political system based on a market economy” and “fair treatment of minority populations,” for example, as well as high standards on military equipment and interoperability with NATO forces.

NATO prepares amendments to its founding treaty, which member state governments must ratify according to national requirements. These vary by country: In the United States, it’s a two-thirds Senate majority.  In Britain, no formal parliamentary vote is needed, according to the alliance’s website.

Most recently, the Republic of North Macedonia joined NATO in March 2020. The official accession process took nearly two years, with NATO leaders having agreed to begin formal accession talks in July 2018. It had been participating in the Membership Action Plan since 1999.

With a green light from its leaders, Finland has taken the first step in the formal membership process, and the proposal will require approval from the nation’s parliament.

NATO Secretary General said if Finland were to apply, the NATO ascension process would be “smooth and swift.”

“Finland’s accession to NATO will cause serious damage to bilateral Russian-Finnish relations” and the “stability and security” of northern Europe, This what Russia’s Foreign Ministry said in a recent statement. “Russia will be forced to take retaliatory steps, both of a military-technical and other nature, in order to stop the threats to its national security that arise in this regard.”

As of today, NATO has no idea what “retaliatory steps Russia would take in either “a military or a technical step of retaliation”.   With Putin’s Russia not doing so well in Ukraine, and with all the help that the Ukraine is receiving from NATO nations, Putin’s threats may just be their threats.

In any case, the chances of the Ukraine becoming a member of NATO appear to not be on the near horizon.

Copyright G. Ater 2022