BIDEN’S POLLS NEED TO IMPROVE TO INSURE THAT TRUMP CAN’T WIN IN 2024

 

…. Trump supporters watch during a rally at the Georgia National Fairgrounds in Perry, Ga., on Sept. 25.

 

Trump’s poll numbers need to stay where they are: in the 40’s.

 

Donald Trump has begun talking again with advisers about whether he should announce his 2024 campaign for president right away.

They have responded by urging him to have patience.  Of course, as usual, this is according to three people familiar with the discussions, who like others would only speak on the condition of anonymity.  This is because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

They think an announcement would force a reshuffling of his newly formed fundraising apparatus, and could complicate his ability to appear on broadcast television without triggering those equal time rules.

Some of his advisers were even concerned that Democrats might use his announcement in their effort to frame the midterms around a possible Trump candidacy  This would potentially boost the Democrats own turnout and hamper his plans, if Republicans fall short in the midterms.  Advisers also argued that he could be more effective in helping elect like-minded Republicans next year, if he was not an official declared candidate himself.

“The biggest point we drove home was that he doesn’t want to own the midterms if we don’t win back the House or Senate,” said one person familiar with the conversations.

The adviser’s arguments won Trump over.  At least for the time being. So, instead of a presidential campaign announcement, Trump, at 75, has settled on a strategy of winks and nods. 

As some in his party worry, he is still acting like a candidate for public office, and making clear he intends to be one again, without actually declaring so himself.

“He tacitly keeps the 2024 crowd on notice that nobody can move a major muscle until he decides what he’s doing,” said Kellyanne Conway, a former top White House adviser.  She also served as Trump's campaign manager in 2016. “As for 2024, there has been a shift from intention to urgency as he watches in horror the many failings of this administration.”

Trump has returned to traveling the country for rallies, including a planned gathering next Saturday in Iowa.  It is designed to look identical to his campaign events. He is raising money with the same aggressive online tactics he used during his last campaign.  This is an unprecedented move for a former president.  With Trump still cut off from Facebook and Twitter, after his supporters attacked the Capitol.  This was when he encouraged them to “stop the steal.” At the time, aides sent out daily emails, often riddled with false statements, on his behalf going after Democrats, detractors and wayward Republicans.

An informal poll of 13 of his current and former advisers in recent days indicated that 10 believed he would run, two said it was a public relations ploy, and another said he was not sure.

“We’re not supposed to be talking about it yet, from the standpoint of campaign finance laws, which frankly are ridiculous,” Trump said on Sept. 11, when asked if he would again be a candidate for president. “But I think you are going to be happy. Let me put it that way.”

In private conversations, he has made it clear that he is keeping a close eye on his potential rivals in a 2024 Republican primary.  Most are unlikely to run if he declares and none of which he currently sees as a threat. Trump has asked some of his advisers about the moves of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and his former vice president Mike Pence, though he believes neither of them will run, should he run.

“I’m running,” he says to people constantly. He has also made clear to advisers that he wants no changes to the nomination calendar in 2024.  This leaves Iowa, where he came in second in 2016, as the first-in-the-nation caucus for Republicans, even if Democrats decide to go a different route.

Taylor Budowich, a Trump spokesman stated:  “President Trump remains committed and engaged in Saving America from the disastrous leadership of the Communist Democrats,” he wrote in an email. “All avenues to achieving that remain on the table.”

Among some Republicans, another Trump bid is cause for concern. Public polling has consistently shown him struggling to break 45% approval across the country, while internal GOP polling this year has found support for his candidacy hovering around 40%. His toxic brand continues to turn off most voters in the suburbs.  This is according to strategists in battleground states. He faces a litany of other headaches, including investigations into his businesses in New York, and a congressional probe about his role in the deadly Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection.

Many of the party’s top donors have privately told strategists and party leaders they want a nominee other than Trump.  This is according to four strategists and officials. Part of the discussion inside the party has focused not on Trump’s overall popularity, but on whether he might have trouble convincing Republicans in 2024 that he is best suited to be the party’s nominee for the third time. Joe Biden received 7 million more votes in the last election than Trump, who also earned 2.9 million votes less than Hillary Clinton did in 2016.

“He has a deep and committed loyal base,” said Bob Vander Plaats, CEO of the Family Leader, an Iowa-based Christian group that has been hosting potential candidates. “But even in that deep and committed loyal base, there are many who don’t think Trump should run again.”

Trump is aware of his challenges. In a meeting just before the November election, he was shown polling that suggested his policies were popular, even as he was trailing.  He jokingly conceded the problem was him.

Trump’s fundraising efforts have persisted at a frantic pace, even though most of his direct appeals for independent PACs, or his own, cannot be used for a future presidential campaign because of how they were established under campaign finance law. He and his allies have sent out more than 100 requests for political contributions in recent weeks, at times reaching the levels of his 2020 campaign. All of his emailed statements now include a new button: “Donate to Save America.” There are donation offers to meet him at events and even what sound like threats for not donating.  “President Trump has texted me,” one pitch reads, adding that the “fundraising director will report the person for not donating.”

Trump remains focused on revenge against those who opposed his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. He has asked David Perdue, the former Georgia senator, to run against Republican Gov. Brian Kemp in Georgia. He publicly pressured Perdue to run during his Sept. 25 rally in Perry, Ga., at which he mocked Kemp for failing to kowtow to his election demands.

Trump, like other Republicans, is optimistic that the party can win back the House and the Senate next year, in part because of Biden’s recent slump in polling. Aides to Biden, 78, say he is also planning to run for reelection.

“The only thing I am picking up is that people want to save this country,” said Steven Scheffler, a Republican National Committeeman in Iowa. “I am seeing bigger crowds at Republican functions.”

At 78 today, it may be a big problem for Biden to run in 2024, unless his Infrastructure and “Build Back Better” bills become so positive that his poll numbers get back to those in the 70’s.  Hopefully, Trump’s polls will continue in the 40’s.

Copyright G. Ater 2021