PRESIDENT’S VIRUS DEATH ESTIMATES ARE QUESTIONED

…Dr. Deborah Brix trying to explain the projected 100,000 to 240,000 American coronavirus deaths

Coved-19 experts are unable to explain the White House projections of American virus deaths

For over 3 years, many of us have been saying that it appeared that the president’s brain wasn’t playing with a full deck of cards.  Well, that statement was just made even more true after the latest update on the anticipated deaths from the coronavirus pandemic.

The reason I say that, is that the leading disease experts, whose research the White House says they used to conclude that 100,000 to 240,000 Americans will die, nationwide, from the coronavirus.  These experts were mystified when they saw the administration’s projection numbers this week.

The experts said that they don’t challenge the numbers’ validity, but they just can’t figure out how the White House came to those numbers….?

White House officials have refused to explain how they came to the figures which are a death toll larger than the United States suffered in the Vietnam War or in the 9/11 terrorist attacks. They have not provided the basic data they collected, so the rest of us can agree, or disagree, with its reliability.  In addition, they can’t provide any long-term strategies for lowering that large death count.

Some of President Trump’s top advisers have also stated their doubts about the same estimate.  This is according to three White House officials who as usual, spoke on the condition of anonymity, because the president did not authorized them to speak publicly. They have stated that there have been fierce debates inside the White House about the number’s and their accuracy.

At the task force meeting last week, according to the two officials with direct knowledge, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told others there are too many variables at play in the pandemic to make any of the  models reliable: “I’ve looked at all the models. I’ve spent a lot of time on the models. They don’t tell you anything. You can’t really rely upon models,” the Doctor said.

Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the vice president Pence’s office have similarly stated their doubts about the death projections’ accuracy.

Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University epidemiologist whose models were incorrectly cited by the White House, said his own work on the pandemic doesn’t go far enough to make predictions akin to the White House fatality forecast.  “We don’t have a sense of what’s going on in the here and now, and we don’t know what people will do in the future,” he said. “We also don’t know if the virus is seasonal.”

The estimate appeared to be a highly rushed projection, said Marc Lipsitch, a leading epidemiologist and director of the: Harvard University’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. “They contacted us, I think, on a Tuesday a week ago, and asked for answers and feedback by Thursday, basically 24 hours,” he said. “My initial response was we can’t do it that fast. But we ended up providing them some numbers, but those were in responding to very specific scenarios.”

Other experts noted that the White House didn’t even explain the time period the death estimate supposedly captures.  Is this the eventual deaths, or just the deaths this season.

The total of what the public knows about the death projection was presented on a single slide at the briefing Tuesday.  This projection was from the White House coronavirus task force.  A White House representative said the task force has not publicly released the models it drew from, and this was out of respect for the confidentiality of the modelers.  (Why do the modelers need confidentiality…?)

Many of the modelers had approached the White House unsolicited and wanted to continue their work without publicity.  (Why is that…?)

Testing for the coronavirus is a needed part for slowing the spread of the disease.  The United States, to date, has failed to provide tests that worked, and that worked quickly.

As expected, a representative for Dr. Fauci did not respond to a request for comment.  In addition, a spokeswoman for Vice President Pence also declined to comment.  On a Thursday call with conservative political leaders, Pence said it was “difficult” to view the models but “the president thought it was important to share the numbers with the American people.”

Among epidemiologists, the estimate raised more questions than it answered.  That was not just about methodology and accuracy but, perhaps more importantly, about its purpose.

The primary goal of such fatality models about an outbreak is to allow authorities to work out all the scenarios, to deal with the challenges and to offer a real, long-term strategy.  This is something some experts worry doesn’t exist within this White House.

“I wish there was more of a concerted national plan, and I wish it had started a month and a half ago….maybe two months ago,” Shaman said.

Natalie Dean, a biostatistician who was not involved in the White House efforts, but is working on coronavirus vaccine with the World Health Organization (WHO), she pointed out that, “The whole reason you create models is to help you make decisions.  But you have to actually act on those projections and answers. Otherwise, the models are totally useless.”

Unfortunately, without Dr. Fauci’s comments in support of these models, and with out any explanation as to how the White House came to these numbers, it is more and more looking like someone just threw a dart at a board and took whatever numbers the dart hit.

Just more examples as to why this president is once again, way over his head.

Copyright G. Ater 2020