THE PRESIDENT IS WRONG ABOUT NOT HAVING SOCIAL DISTANCING

… The economist, Paul Krugman Is the kind of adviser to which our president should be listening

The president’s arguments about the pandemic are immoral and flat wrong.

It has been decades since I attended San Jose State, back before it became a University, and also since I attended Stanford University for my Executive MBA.  But one of my favorite classes was that which dealt with economics.  No, I never formally studied economics to the level of being an economist, but I have always been interested in how the economy of our nation worked when compared to other nations.  In addition, I was curious as to why the United States economy was usually ahead of all of the other nations.  I also, early on, became very concerned when I saw back in the 60’s, 70’s and 80's, that we had sent so much of our manufacturing capabilities to other countries such as Japan, North Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and China.  But then I realized, by my personally being an active part of Silicon Valley, how as a nation, we had instead focused on the new technologies, which allowed us to stay ahead in the game.

But now that we have a less than a highly intelligent and capable president leading our nation, and one who surrounds himself with “yes men and women,” instead of stellar capable advisers, we are seeing what that gives us as US citizens.

Being that person that has been so interested in our economy, I am normally enthusiastic when our president emphasizes the economic part of our public policy issues.  I have been all for our economic growth, and for having appropriate cost benefit analyses, and having good, working trade agreements plus having flexible markets and prudent deregulation.  Yet today, I am very concerned about the president’s, so called economic arguments as a basis for overriding the decisions of the public health experts about taking on the coronavirus pandemic

In fact, as a matter of pure economics, ignoring the moral and critical considerations that should be taken into account, the president’s arguments are flat wrong.  When Trump tweets and says things like “we cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself” or “you can destroy a country by closing it down” and then he raises the idea of reversing the current measures for promoting social distancing, he misunderstands the basic economic and health problems posed by the pandemic.  This, plus the most rational, appropriate and economical way to address it.  In the end, economic growth and the well-being of the nation will be harmed, not helped, by the directions he is advocating.

It is pure confusion to believe that lost growth and lost jobs are primarily a consequence of social-distancing measures, rather than the pandemic itself.  There are currently more than 50,000 diagnosed cases in the United States. In fact, the number is doubling every few days. Obviously, people would be traveling, shopping and eating out as usual if there were no prohibitions.  But does anyone believe that ordinary life will continue if millions of Americans have the virus and our hospitals are overflowing?  Some hospitals are already saying they are reaching their maximum capacity.  That's not to mention the need for the equipment and materials needed by the medical hospital staff.  This will surely be out of control within weeks or days if we abandon our social distancing.

This logic applies to all social-distancing policies.  Prematurely abandoning or relaxing social distancing will be disastrous on both economic and health grounds.  If restrictions are lifted too soon, the result will be a follow-on pandemic surge.  Yes, and more people will die. What will the policy choice be then? If it is a return to restrictions, starting from a worse point and there is more of the  disease spreading, then the human and economic loss will be greatly magnified.  The costs we have already absorbed will have been totally in vain.

As a matter of basic logic, having temporary social distancing represents the only rational policy alternative.  In the view of all the experts, it would be a grave mistake to accept the full and rapid spread of the coronavirus as being inevitable. We must continue to suffer the additional burden of our temporary distancing.

Ending restrictions too soon and allowing a further disease spike carries a large range of additional risks and costs.  When it is safe to take up old habits, will the public trust the advice of our authorities, such as the current president, who has thus far misled them? What extra cost will be baked into all of the financial markets when it becomes clear that the federal government has offered false assurances on safety? In addition, as the president has such a history for lying to the general public, will other countries then be willing to buy our goods?  That is especially when the United States has turned itself unnecessarily against the advice of experts?

The president has compared the challenge of the pandemic, to the challenge of war, and he mistakenly calls himself a “wartime president".  But Americans do not fight wars for our freedom when we can only keep going for another few weeks and then have to give up.   Temporary economic expedience, over the health of the nation's citizenry is a very dangerous strategy.  We deserve better from our president and our business community than their demands to go back to selling when the coronavirus diseases are still rising.

The president and those business leaders who urge him to abandon a public health approach to a pandemic policy are totally ridiculous and just plain wrong.  Yes, they are correct to want to move through the current difficult period quickly as possible. But the right focus is not to rely on false hopes. It is on to rely on realistic strategies that permit an approach for reducing the disease transmission.  That means to have more testing, more contact tracing, and more and better facilities for those who need to be separated from others, or more facilities for those that need to be treated.

There will come a time when we can start letting up on current restrictions which will help the nation's economy in the process. But it will only come when the new case counts are no longer accelerating and when we have adequate measures in place to quickly catch and contain new outbreaks.  In addition, when we as the public, are confident that we are not endangering the hard-won progress by unnecessary actions.

The president needs to let the medical experts do their jobs and to listen to them and the real economists such as Mr. Krugman.

But we have learned that this president only listens to himself.  And to prove my point of this president's business capabilities, based on the past multiple bankruptcies that this president has had in his personal past, the nation needs to rid itself of this president as soon as possible.

God help us through the pandemic and through the presidency of Donald J. Trump.

Copyright G. Ater 2020