THE ISSUE OF BRITAIN LEAVING THE E.U. IS FAR FROM OVER
After BREXIT results were
announced, Britain citizen’s internet inquiries almost broke Google in Britain!
Yes. It's
actually happening. Some people in Britain are talking seriously about the
possibility of having another referendum on leaving the E.U..
The reality is
that many Brits thought that the vote to leave the E.U. was an “opinion vote”, not a real vote for GB to
actually leave.
In fact, after
the voter’s results were announced, millions of Britain’s citizens almost broke
Google
when millions of local Brits were Googling
with all kinds of questions such as “What
is the E.U.?”, and “What does leaving
E.U. mean to Great Britain?” or, “Can
the decision be turned around?”
A petition
calling for another referendum on whether Britain should stay in the European
Union has quickly received millions of signatures, (more than 3 million by one day after the vote). At this level, that means the petition
must now be debated by the British politicians in Parliament.
Signing it was apparently so popular that the British Parliament's
website, (where the petition was hosted),
briefly crashed after the vote.
The drive
for a new referendum is obviously coming from those who had hoped to "remain" in the E.U. And
Thursday's referendum was very close — the "leave" vote only won with just 51.9%.
What amazed
everyone was the voter turnout for the referendum. It was a whopping 72.2% of GB"s registered voters.
The new
referendum petition suggests there should be a rule in referendums with less
than 75% support, there should be another referendum. (They
recommend that the decision should be approved by more than 60% of those
voting.)
Could this
plan actually work? Might Britain actually vote again and decide to stay in the
E.U.?
Yes, it is a
possibility.
But here is
why it is just, “kind of a possibility”:
·
Yes, it would
be strange to have a referendum immediately after a previous referendum on the
same subject provided a clear outcome. But, on the other hand, this entire
situation is odd.
·
Britain has
only had three nationwide referendums. Major policy decisions are usually
decided by the country's elected officials. As many have noted, this referendum
was called for by Prime Minister David Cameron for calming local tensions over
the E.U. within his own Conservative Party.
Cameron had expected to win. He was completely mistaken.
·
Thursday's
referendum wasn't actually legally binding.
Cameron could have set it up to be binding. This means that, in theory
at least, the British government could completely ignore the results and do
whatever it thinks is best.
·
Of course,
doing that would anger the majority of the country who voted to leave the
E.U. However, a new referendum could
provide some democratic justification to the decision.
·
The close
result does help the argument somewhat. Britain's 1975 referendum on membership
of the European Economic Community was decided by a 67.2 percent vote to stay
in the E.U..
·
An additional
factor is the various reports of those who voted to, "leave", but now say they are upset
at what has happened.
·
Many of these
accounts seem to suggest that the "leave"
voter in question thought their vote would only serve as a protest
vote. "I didn’t think my vote
was going to matter too much because I thought we were just going to 'remain,'"
one man told the BBC on Friday, adding that he was "quite worried about the final effect”.
There are a
few other things to deal with, so I'll go through them step by step.
Ignoring the
clear result of a referendum is unfair. Sure, the results of Thursday's
vote were close, but they were pretty conclusive. 51.9% is a better mandate than most governments win for a general
election. It would also be political
suicide for Britain's government to say "your vote didn't count" to half the country. Millions of
Brits may want a new referendum, but 17 million already voted to leave the
E.U..
The proposal
outlined in the new petition requires setting up laws and then retroactively
applying them to Thursday's vote. But that's not how real laws work.
In addition,
the new petition was set up earlier in May, ahead of the actual BREXIT
vote. It was a bid to change the rules
before Britons voted. However, in real
practice, this doesn't matter.
Petitions also
don't mean that much in GB. But, now that the petition has well over
100,000 votes, it will have to be debated by Parliament. However, British members of
Parliament will have no actual imperative to act on it. Petitions get lots
of signatures all the time and seldom does anything happen.
Remember the
petition signed by millions to ban Donald Trump from visiting Britain earlier
this year? It went nowhere.
The issues in
GB are similar to why the US is dealing with a Donald Trump running for
president.
If you look at
the map of how the Brits voted, it resembles what is going on in the US. The equivalent of those that support Trump,
is similar to those that voted in GB to leave the E.U.
That being, it
was the Brits that voted to leave, that live in the rural British version of
America's “Rust Belt”, where jobs have been
lost, income inequality is rampant, wages stagnant for decades and since their
joining the E.U., things have just gotten worse for millions of these British
citizens.
GB is also have a shrinking
middle-class, just like in the US. Also
as in the US, the Brits living in the cities voted to support the “status quo” in GB for staying in the E.U...
It there was
another referendum, "Remain"
might still lose anyway. For those who supported "remain," the idea that "leave" voters are voters who didn't
know what they were voting for is interesting.
However, there
is actually little evidence of regretful voters of those who have talked to
media outlets. Until there is a
comprehensive poll that shows otherwise, it is fair to conclude that "leave" would still win a second
referendum.
But today,
there is a lot of uncertainty in the British air. Cameron has already stated that he will be
stepping down, which will trigger a leadership contest for
the Conservatives.
There are
strong signs that Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the opposition Labour Party, is
very unpopular and may be forced to step down.
Some are suggesting that there could be another general election before
the end of the year.
Meanwhile,
Britain has not yet triggered Article 50. That is “the
procedure for actually leaving the E.U.”, and there are signs it may be
delayed for as long as possible.
If there is a
general election, how and when to leave the E.U. would probably become a
major issue.
Even if Article
50 is invoked, negotiations on leaving could take up to two
years. In addition, any new deal with the E.U. will still have to pass
the British Parliament. Some in Westminster
are saying that it will probably be put to a referendum again. If that does
happens, it may well be the last chance for "remain" to have their voice heard.
The point is,
this is situation in GB as is the turmoil in America, is all far from being over.
Copyright G.Ater 2016
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