THE ISSUE OF BRITAIN LEAVING THE E.U. IS FAR FROM OVER



…What Great Britain lost in trade if leaving the E.U.  sticks.

 
 
After BREXIT results were announced, Britain citizen’s internet inquiries almost broke Google in Britain!
 
 
Yes. It's actually happening. Some people in Britain are talking seriously about the possibility of having another referendum on leaving the E.U..
 
The reality is that many Brits thought that the vote to leave the E.U. was an “opinion vote”, not a real vote for GB to actually leave.
 
In fact, after the voter’s results were announced, millions of Britain’s citizens almost broke Google when millions of local Brits were Googling with all kinds of questions such as “What is the E.U.?”, and “What does leaving E.U. mean to Great Britain?” or, “Can the decision be turned around?”
 
A petition calling for another referendum on whether Britain should stay in the European Union has quickly received millions of signatures, (more than 3 million by one day after the vote).  At this level, that means the petition must now be debated by the British politicians in Parliament.  Signing it was apparently so popular that the British Parliament's website, (where the petition was hosted), briefly crashed after the vote.
 
The drive for a new referendum is obviously coming from those who had hoped to "remain" in the E.U.  And Thursday's referendum was very close — the "leave" vote only won with just 51.9%.
 
What amazed everyone was the voter turnout for the referendum.  It was a whopping 72.2% of GB"s registered voters.  
 
The new referendum petition suggests there should be a rule in referendums with less than 75% support, there should be another referendum.  (They recommend that the decision should be approved by more than 60% of those voting.)
 
Could this plan actually work? Might Britain actually vote again and decide to stay in the E.U.?
 
Yes, it is a possibility.
 
But here is why it is just, “kind of a possibility”:
 
·       Yes, it would be strange to have a referendum immediately after a previous referendum on the same subject provided a clear outcome. But, on the other hand, this entire situation is odd.
 
·       Britain has only had three nationwide referendums. Major policy decisions are usually decided by the country's elected officials. As many have noted, this referendum was called for by Prime Minister David Cameron for calming local tensions over the E.U. within his own Conservative Party.  Cameron had expected to win. He was completely mistaken.
 
·       Thursday's referendum wasn't actually legally binding.  Cameron could have set it up to be binding. This means that, in theory at least, the British government could completely ignore the results and do whatever it thinks is best.
 
·       Of course, doing that would anger the majority of the country who voted to leave the E.U.  However, a new referendum could provide some democratic justification to the decision.
 
·       The close result does help the argument somewhat. Britain's 1975 referendum on membership of the European Economic Community was decided by a 67.2 percent vote to stay in the E.U..
 
·       An additional factor is the various reports of those who voted to, "leave", but now say they are upset at what has happened.
 
·       Many of these accounts seem to suggest that the "leave" voter in question thought their vote would only serve as a protest vote. "I didn’t think my vote was going to matter too much because I thought we were just going to 'remain,'" one man told the BBC on Friday, adding that he was "quite worried about the final effect”.
 
There are a few other things to deal with, so I'll go through them step by step.
 
Ignoring the clear result of a referendum is unfair. Sure, the results of Thursday's vote were close, but they were pretty conclusive. 51.9% is a better mandate than most governments win for a general election.  It would also be political suicide for Britain's government to say "your vote didn't count" to half the country. Millions of Brits may want a new referendum, but 17 million already voted to leave the E.U..
 
The proposal outlined in the new petition requires setting up laws and then retroactively applying them to Thursday's vote. But that's not how real laws work. 
 
In addition, the new petition was set up earlier in May, ahead of the actual BREXIT vote.  It was a bid to change the rules before Britons voted.  However, in real practice, this doesn't matter.
 
Petitions also don't mean that much in GB.  But, now that the petition has well over 100,000 votes, it will have to be debated by Parliament.  However, British members of Parliament will have no actual imperative to act on it. Petitions get lots of signatures all the time and seldom does anything happen.
 
Remember the petition signed by millions to ban Donald Trump from visiting Britain earlier this year?  It went nowhere.
 
The issues in GB are similar to why the US is dealing with a Donald Trump running for president.
 
If you look at the map of how the Brits voted, it resembles what is going on in the US.  The equivalent of those that support Trump, is similar to those that voted in GB to leave the E.U.
 
That being, it was the Brits that voted to leave, that live in the rural British version of America's “Rust Belt”, where jobs have been lost, income inequality is rampant, wages stagnant for decades and since their joining the E.U., things have just gotten worse for millions of these British citizens. 
 
 
GB is also have a shrinking middle-class, just like in the US.  Also as in the US, the Brits living in the cities voted to support the “status quo” in GB for staying in the E.U...
 
It there was another referendum, "Remain" might still lose anyway. For those who supported "remain," the idea that "leave" voters are voters who didn't know what they were voting for is interesting. 
 
However, there is actually little evidence of regretful voters of those who have talked to media outlets.  Until there is a comprehensive poll that shows otherwise, it is fair to conclude that "leave" would still win a second referendum.
 
But today, there is a lot of uncertainty in the British air.  Cameron has already stated that he will be stepping down, which will trigger a leadership contest for the Conservatives.
 
There are strong signs that Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the opposition Labour Party, is very unpopular and may be forced to step down.  Some are suggesting that there could be another general election before the end of the year.
 
Meanwhile, Britain has not yet triggered Article 50.  That is “the procedure for actually leaving the E.U.”, and there are signs it may be delayed for as long as possible.
 
If there is a general election, how and when to leave the E.U. would probably become a major issue.
 
Even if Article 50 is invoked, negotiations on leaving could take up to two years.  In addition, any new deal with the E.U. will still have to pass the British Parliament. Some in Westminster are saying that it will probably be put to a referendum again. If that does happens, it may well be the last chance for "remain" to have their voice heard.
 
The point is, this is situation in GB as is the turmoil in America, is all far from being over.
 
Copyright G.Ater  2016
 

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